Saturday, September 17 at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas (HBO PPV):
Victor Ortiz (29-2-2, 22 KO) vs. Floyd Mayweather, Jr. (41-0, 25 KO)
WBC Welterweight (147 lb.) Championship Prediction: Mayweather by decision
The
Mayweather dilemma: that which makes him great also creates boring,
frustrating viewing for his fights. Of course, it's much more of a
dilemma for us than for him, since he'll make around $30 million this
weekend.
When "Money" is at his best, which is just about always,
his bouts turn into round after round of glorified sparring. What's
happening is that his opponent loses confidence in (1) an ability to
connect with any clean shots and, equally, (2) the capacity to throw a
punch without tasting leather each time he lets his hands go.
It's
not that opponents won't take the fight to him, it's that they can't,
or more accurately, can't figure out how. The
opponent who will defeat Floyd (assuming it's not a shot Floyd) must
concede that he will lose rounds and eat several right crosses without
hesitating his attack for a moment. In other words, forget about the
scorecards and Compubox stats and just focus on hurting him, or at least
making him highly uncomfortable.
Will "Viscious" Victor be that
guy? He certainly doesn't appear to be this week, with a huge smile on
his face everywhere he goes, looking to promote his image and
marketability rather than possessing a singleminded desire to beat the
hell out of Mayweather. That said, Roberto Durans don't come around
every day.
Ortiz is young, very talented, strong and athletic,
with good punching power. His tools and capabilities create the
potential for an intriguing matchup if he can land his left hand or
match Mayweather's hand speed and footwork.
Nothing against Ortiz, but he's fighting the best in the
world Saturday night, probably one of the top 20-30 to ever lace up the gloves. School will be in session.
Erik Morales (51-7, 35 KO) vs. Pablo Cano (22-0-1, 17 KO)
WBC Junior Welterweight (140 lb.) Championship Prediction: Morales by KO
After
losing five of six between 2004-07, Morales has made an impressive
comeback in the last year, beating three notable opponents and looking
very good whil losing a close decision to imposing brawler Marcos
Maidana.
He's a shell of what he was ten years ago during his
Hall of Fame Career, but he should have plenty left to take it to Cano,
who's fought no one near the caliber of even an old Morales.
Morales still has his skill and has retained some punch, including his vaunted right hand, which should drop Cano for the count.
Jessie Vargas (16-0, 9 KO) vs. Josesito Lopez (29-3, 17 KO)
Junior Welterweights (140
lb.) Prediction: Vargas by decision
This
might be the hardest call of the night; Lopez is not merely a
gatekeeper, he's a bona fide contender, having knocked off such
promising prospects as Mike Dallas, Jr. and Patrick Lopez.
Meanwhile,
though he's looked good, Vargas has been served up shot fighters such
as Vivian Harris and Nate Campbell. This is a significant step up for
him, and it's a question of whether he can pass the test of a truly
dangerous, veteran opponent.
Saturday, September 17 at the Staples Center, Los Angeles (HBO PPV):
Saul Alvarez (37-0-1, 27 KO) vs. Alfonso Gomez (23-4-2, 12 KO)
WBC Junior Middleweight (154 lb.) Championship Prediction: Alvarez by TKO
Former
"Contender" star Gomez is easy to root for, as an affable overachiever
with a fan-friendly style, and he's posted some very good wins,
including ones over Jesus Soto-Karass
and Peter Manfredo, Jr., as well as defeating faded stars Jose Luis
Castillo and Arturo Gatti.
He has the capacity to sneak up on
someone who's not mentally prepared and steal a win. However, he has
his limits, making him the perfect B-side to Alvarez in Saturday night's
split-site co-feature. The elite, prime boxer-punchers, as we saw with
Miguel Cotto and will watch again this weekend with Alvarez, just have
too much ammunition and power for Gomez to handle.
He'll be game,
but his willingness to engage and exchange will play right into the
hands of Mexico's next superstar, who will move even farther along in
his brief, rising career. Alvarez possess the poise, swagger and killer
instinct of a real champion and a torchbearer, which he'll have on
display at Staples Saturday night.
With average speed and defense, some styles will neutralize Alvarez to some degree. (See the main event, for example.) But
not Gomez; that's for another night.
