The PPV TV Cheat Sheet- Apr. 9, 2011
By Martin Mulcahey, MaxBoxing (April 9, 2011) Special to Doghouse Boxing
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Golden Boy Promotions is marketing tonight’s PPV as “Action Heroes” and, opening bout notwithstanding, it is an apt catchphrase for the volatile talent on the card. The eight men represent a good mix of talent, youth, toughness, charisma, and proven excitement. Despite this, only three of the eight boxers are currently rated in the top ten by The Ring magazine; thankfully, two of them are fighting one another. There is legitimate anxiety that Hall of Fame-bound headliner Erik Morales has overreached with hard-charging Argentine banger Marcos Maidana. Another concern for any headliner who has Michael Katsidis on the undercard is the very real possibility of Morales having his thunder stolen by the warrior from Down Under. This is a solid card that should deliver definitive endings to fights…and perhaps careers.

At the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV
(PPV) Erik Morales (51-6) vs. Marcos Maidana (29-2)
(The Ring magazine unranked vs. #3 junior welterweight)
(PPV) Michael Katsidis (27-3) vs. Robert Guerrero (28-1-1)
(The Ring magazine #3 lightweight vs. #9)
(PPV) James Kirkland (27-0) vs. Nobuhiro Ishida (22-6-2)
(PPV) Paul Malignaggi (28-4) vs. Jose Cotto (32-2-1)

Jose Cotto- Younger brother Miguel Cotto gets all the press but Jose is a good boxer in his own right and like his brother, represented Puerto Rico in the Olympics. On the pro level, Miguel progressed further and faster, despite the duo boxing in similar styles and Jose sporting a 69% kayo ratio. Lost in the first round of the 1996 Olympics, four years before his brother, to eventual bronze medalist Raimkul Malakhbekov. Where the brothers separate themselves is Jose’s tendency to get complacent and unnecessarily give away rounds to inferior boxers. Fights in a controlled manner, working singular and combination punches off a direct jab, doing equally well coming forward or backing up to make room for counterpunches. Had two title shots, losing a wide decision to Juan Diaz and disappointingly drawing with Thai Prawet Singwancha in Puerto Rico. After the  Singwancha draw, did not box for two years, returning in 2009 with three stoppage victories over low-level opposition. In his last fight of consequence, stunned hot prospect Saul Alvarez but did not follow up on the advantage and was stopped in the ninth round. At 33 years old, is reliant on quickness and angles because of his short 5’5½” stature, this is Cotto’s last best chance to move into title consideration. Will need to show more lateral movement to chase down Paul Malignaggi and not rely on solid fundamentals to edge rounds as he has in the past. When Cotto is on top of his game, putting three consecutive rounds together, he gives every impression of being a world champion. Unfortunately, for Cotto, this fight is contested at welterweight, when he is a natural lightweight, and the added pounds do not suggest Cotto will put forth a high work rate. Cotto has the skills and experience to win rounds behind his left hook and uppercuts but does not possess anything Malignaggi did not see against his superior brother.

Paul Malignaggi- Is it me or was Malignaggi “Jersey Shore” before there was such a thing as “Jersey Shore”? Now, with long slicked-back black hair, he looks like a cross between actor Andy Garcia and a bad Las Vegas magician. Anyone who doesn’t believe personality sells in boxing has not followed the career of Malignaggi. The brash New Yorker is not TV-friendly inside the ring, frustrating foes with a pestering jab and movement that leaves them tripping over their feet trying to catch the elusive counterpuncher. Outside the ring, Malignaggi is a quote machine, whose cocksure “tough Italian kid from the Brooklyn” shtick has made him a box-office hit. However, it has to be noted that Malignaggi is not afraid to stand and fight when forced to do so; in fact, he won over many fans in a lopsided loss to Miguel Cotto. Started boxing at age 16, establishing a solid amateur record as a two-time New York City Golden Gloves champion and winner of an USA National Amateur title. Still fights in that amateur tap-and-move style but much of that is a result of brittle hands that have dogged Malignaggi his entire career. No one doubts his toughness in the ring after the beatings he absorbed at the hands of Miguel Cotto and Ricky Hatton. Is tough as barbed wire, mentally, staying within punching range of stronger opponents in order to create angles for his own weaker punches. Malignaggi is an accurate puncher; he does not waste punches and rattles off combinations whenever available. Prefers to stay in a dangerous pocket inside the reach of opponents, instead of totally working on the outside to pick his shots and thus, create less action. A problem for Malignaggi is that those punches look better than they actually are. His punches do not debilitate opponents and are more of an annoyance then a weapon. Judges reward Malignaggi for the pitty-pat punches and, more often than not, foes cannot land their punches because of Malignaggi’s deft footwork and reflexes. His body looks fit and tone at new welterweight level, stopping a decent Michael Lozada in his last fight. It was Malignaggi’s first stoppage win since 2004! Malignaggi’s is not always an attractive style to watch but it is an effective one that leads to victories. Pernell Whitaker would be proud.

Verdict- Jose Cotto had his moments against Saul Alvarez but that was because Alvarez is not a finished product on defense. Malignaggi is, sporting a great sense of distance and can still rely on his reflexes when cornered. Malignaggi looks reborn on offense at welterweight, throwing punches with more confidence and at a higher connect percentage. Cotto’s lack of volume hurts him and I see Malignaggi winning the fight from a distance after discovering Cotto is sturdier than expected, strength-wise. Malignaggi lacks the power stop Cotto but should not lose more than three rounds either.

Nobuhiro Ishida- Slick veteran boxes younger than his 35 years of age, employing all the tricks 238 rounds of professional boxing affords. Ishida has been around the sport for decades, turning pro 11 years ago, lacing up the gloves at age six, emulating a father who boxed. Won several national high school level titles, then matriculated to college, where Ishida continued to box in amateur bouts. Finished with a 101-15 amateur record and surprisingly scored 50% of those wins via stoppage. That trend that did not continue when Ishida turned professional, only registering seven stoppages in 22 wins. Ishida has a lanky frame, standing 6’1”, with most of his musculature in the abdominal area. Lacks definition and muscle mass on his chest and shoulders, probably the reason why Ishida does not engage in infighting and gets pushed out of clinches. Ishida won a bogus “interim” title against an average banger, Venezuelan Marco Avendano, but lost it after one easy defense to Rigoberto Alvarez in Mexico. The close decision loss would have probably gone Ishida’s way on neutral ground. A flash knockdown against Ishida proved the difference, with scores of 114-113, 115-112 for Alvarez and 114-113 for the visitor. Ishida is a jab-and-react mover, adjusting his next punch or movement according to the success of the initial jab. Long right hand is accurate off the even longer jab, with both punches coming at a high speed since Ishida is selective and tries to make every punch count. Ishida has a solid chin; his feet make him hard to corner and it will take a combination of punches to rattle the comfortable stylist. Enters winning 11 of his last 13 fights and that loss was debatable and he traveled outside of Japan for his last ring appearance. Ishida moved to California last October, so jetlag and acclimatization is not a factor. It’s been three years since Ishida stopped an opponent and his level of opposition has been adequate. Ishida gave The Ring magazine’s Doug Fischer his keys to victory, “I have better technique than Kirkland. My jab is my best weapon. We want to keep Kirkland in the center of the ring and at the end of my jab. I want to test his skill and his stamina.”

James Kirkland- Three years ago, this exciting banger was everywhere, jumping channels from ESPN to Showtime and even HBO. Then the troubled Kirkland had another scrape with the law (a gun violation of his parole for armed robbery) and an ensuing jail stint put him out of action for two years halting all that momentum. Inside the ring, the more I watch Kirkland, the more I look forward to seeing him again. The Texas native is an aggressive banger with power in either hand, stopping 24 of 27 opponents with the majority falling before the fourth round. The level of opposition has been good, with Joel Julio and Brian Vera both succumbing to Kirkland’s relentless attacks. Some of what Kirkland possesses cannot be taught, entering the ring with a menacing aura reminiscent of legends like Roberto Duran, Mike Tyson, or Stanley Ketchel. Kirkland is strong, smart, and continually moves forward but can fall back on an excellent amateur background that saw him finish with a 134-12 record. He began boxing at age six, finishing as high as second in the National Golden Gloves, despite a pro style. If that were not enough, Kirkland is a southpaw as well. What set Kirkland apart in 2008, aside from his ultra-destructive stalking style, were the unorthodox training methods he endured at the behest of former trainer Ann Wolfe, such as backpedaling and punching a heavy-bag jerry-rigged to the front of her pickup truck, which she drove straight at the retreating boxer. Kirkland has knocked out his last eight opponents, six in two rounds or less, and I liken his style to former world champion and Hall-of-Famer Aaron “The Hawk” Pryor. Kirkland, now trained by Kenny Adams in Las Vegas, has a long way to go before validating that comparison but, at 27, a title run seems perfectly timed. Is keeping a busy pace to accomplish that, two fights last month, and his fan-friendly style will keep the “Mandingo Warrior” on television. Because of his overwhelming offensive traits, has not been tested on defense but Kirkland did ride out some big shots from powerful Joel Julio. Ishida will not dent Kirkland’s chin but will test his footwork and ability to cut off the ring. Some fighters have intangibles that elevate them beyond the facts and numbers; Kirkland is such a fighter.

Verdict- This fight is scheduled for eight rounds, which could favor a mobile and experienced veteran like Ishida. However, Kirkland looks is too strong for an Ishida who does not throw enough punches to offset Kirkland’s volume. Ishida has a height advantage of four inches (looks like more from pictures) and an equal amount in reach that has to be taken into consideration. If there is an upset to be had on this card, I feel Ishida is the pick since he can hunt and peck his way to a points win. Then again, Vegas judges do not appreciate ring generalship and defense. Ishida has the skills to survive but not win backing up continuously. I like Kirkland by a closer than expected unanimous decision.

Michael Katsidis- I admit my biases. Win, lose, or draw, I want to see this Australian menace do his thing. Katsidis’ go-for-broke, full-frontal attacks on opponents are made for TV and so is the Spartan helmet he wears into the ring. Burst on the American scene in a savage fight against Filipino Czar Amonsot in 2007 and fared really well in England, knocking off two of their champions. Despite suffering losses to Joel Casamayor, Juan Diaz, and Juan Manuel Marquez, Katsidis’ star continues to ascend because of a kamikaze style that reminds many of the late Arturo Gatti. Was a fine amateur, finishing with a 75-6 record and quarterfinal appearance at the 2000 Olympics. Even before Katsidis wowed American audiences, he had a “Fight of the Year”-type encounter against Graham Earl in England, which Secondsout.com (our British sister-site) rated the best fight of 2007. Katsidis might be the most consistently exciting fighter, outside of Manny Pacquiao, in all of boxing. His losses have come against elite lightweights and he enjoyed his share of good moments in those setbacks. Katsidis showed unexpected boxing ability in the Casamayor fight, surviving two early knockdowns to fight his way back into contention. An offensive mindset like Katsidis’ prevents some of that skill from coming forth but against boxers who are not well-rounded, his brute force strategy works. Is not all brawn and The Ring magazine rated him at number 67 in its annual ratings of fighters to begin the year. With Katsidis, there is the possibility of a cut as well and Robert Guerrero has slicing punches in his arsenal. In general, Katsidis’ defense is weak, limited to little head movement and an occasional duck to avoid a punch. Oscar De La Hoya’s eyes light up and his voice goes an octave higher speaking about Katsidis. “Michael Katsidis defines what a true warrior is, a fighter who never disappoints. His style is a style that is progressing. He comes forward. He gets cut. He puts up tremendous battles and really fights until the end.”

Robert Guerrero- The last time fans saw Guerrero, he was fashioning a crafty ten round victory over Vicente Escobedo. Before that, outthought borderline Hall-of-Famer Joel Casamayor and was unfairly criticized for the measured approach he took against a dangerous foe. The laid-back Californian is a two-division champion, who has achieved much, considering the mental strain of his wife, Casey’s battle to overcome leukemia. Thankfully, the disease has gone into remission and Guerrero can mentally devote himself fully to boxing. In the past, I unfairly underrated Guerrero. For some reason, I chose to remember his loss to Gamaliel Diaz more than impressive stoppage victories over the likes of Jason Litzau, Spend Abazi, and Efren Hinojosa. Why? I am not sure. I just have and Guerrero has made me regret my evaluations and picks against him. Guerrero is a hard-hitting southpaw whose abilities are diverse enough to let him box patiently before switching into seek-and-destroy mode. A former IBF featherweight and junior lightweight titlist, the jury is still out on whether his power has traveled up with him to lightweight. I tend to think it will, since that power is predicated on speed as much as pure punching. Guerrero turns his punches over well from a distance and finds space by taking judicious backward steps when needed, often unleashing nice uppercuts. On defense, Guerrero seems a bit stiff, not rolling with punches and standing too tall during exchanges. When on defense, crowds opponents enough to absorb the impact of punches instead of taking full brunt at range. At 28, Guerrero is in his physical prime and looks best when moving forward behind a forceful jab and accurate hooks. At lightweight, is the complete package, seemingly eliminating minor flaws while adding new tools to his offensive arsenal every time out. Because of the odd circumstance of his no-contest against Daud Yordan, Guerrero is underappreciated and has been downgraded unjustly. Now that his wife’s medical issues are behind them, perhaps a more focused Guerrero can go on to fulfill the potential many saw in him, perhaps even unifying the lightweight division.

Verdict- I quit underestimating Guerrero and see him with advantages in every measurable area except toughness. Everything Katsidis does, Guerrero does better, faster, and Guerrero has not suffered setbacks as Katsidis did against higher-caliber opposition. Of course, Katsidis will not go down without a fight but, at some point, frustration sets in and Katsidis looks for one punch to turn the tide. My guess is that happens around the sixth round. Guerrero will open up and try to finish his foe, knowing how he was criticized for failing to stop Casamayor. Down the stretch, Guerrero outduels Katsidis with speed, scoring two knockdowns to force the referee to wave the fight off in the tenth.

Marcos Maidana- For as long as Maidana boxes, I will remember the incredible guts, literally, he showed getting up from devastating body shot by Amir Khan in the first round of their hectic battle. Maidana has the heart, punch, and style to remain a star on television with or without a title belt. Maidana was no slouch in the amateurs, a two-time national champ and World Championship quarterfinalist, just missing out on an Olympic berth when American Rock Allen beat him in the finals of the Americas qualifiers. It is not often a boxer creates a positive reputation in a loss but Maidana cemented world-class credentials in a tight split decision setback to world titlist Andreas Kotelnik. Those notions were confirmed when the Argentine rallied from three knockdowns, in a thrilling back-and-forth battle, to stop Victor Ortiz. Maidana is understated out of the ring and inside the ropes, he does not waste punches or get wild in the finishing sequences accounting for an 87% kayo ratio. The way he inches into striking distance is similar to that of former great Kostya Tszyu, sometimes using his jab as a measuring stick more than a punch. The punches flow nicely, not favoring his right or left when initiating, and Maidana’s punch sequences are seldom repetitive. Technique is not perfect, where his punches can loop and come from awkward angles. Defense is also a concern; Maidana has been dropped multiple times and needs to move his head more. Sports an eye-catching combination of accuracy and power and you cannot achieve a kayo ratio in the upper 80’s without good finishing skills. Is a road warrior as well; since 2007, Maidana has had six fights in Germany and registered his biggest victory in California. Acclimating himself to Vegas has not posed problems and Maidana has been training there for the last month. Firmly entrenched in the top ten at junior welterweight; tonight could be Maidana’s the first step toward establishing himself as an HBO regular.

Erik Morales- Until his return to the ring in March of 2010, Morales had served a well-earned two-and-a-half year stint of retirement. That was initiated by a close loss to David Diaz and preceded by three losses to Manny Pacquiao (twice) and Zahir Raheem. Making weight and a host of other excuses surfaced to pave the way for his return but Morales has had moments of brilliance in his comeback. Fans loved the prime Morales and win or lose tonight, Morales is a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame. I get the feeling fans remain hesitant to fully welcome back Morales, for fear of the eventual bad ending that could be provided. Having said that, at age 34, a rested Morales had good moments against Jose Alfaro that cannot be entirely discounted. At his best, Morales was a thinking man’s destroyer, finding and exploiting opponents’ holes to maximum effectiveness with an intelligent punch selection. His long arms were like laser-guided missiles and weaved their way around elbows or gloves to hit the target flush, a Ricardo Lopez that lacked defense, if you will. Those are the traits that made Morales the last man to defeat Manny Pacquiao but it was Morales who exited that trilogy the more damaged party. Morales lost his next four fights and was twice stopped by Pacquiao in revenge matches. Pictures and the promotional fight video show Morales looking less paunchy than in his previous comeback bouts or maybe that is my interpretation because I am used to Morales’ svelte form at junior lightweight. Morales has not won a fight above 130 pounds against a top ten-level opponent and this bout will be contested at the junior welterweight limit. Morales fans can take consolation that he is coming back for the right reasons of pride and love for the sport and is not forced back into the ring by monetary problems.

Verdict- I am concerned for Morales, since nothing in his comeback has prepared Morales for the size and relentlessness of Maidana. In his last fight, Morales needed both fists to win; for this fight, Morales’ feet will be more important than his punches. If Maidana cuts off the ring and catches Maidana, it’s game over. His swarming style and accuracy is the stuff that wears on veterans. Morales needs to get Maidana’s respect early and I think he can rock Maidana but not put him away, given Maidana’s impressive recuperative powers. If it goes the distance, I like Maidana since he throws more punches; if the fight ends early, I like Maidana because of his superior size and power. I appreciate everything Morales has achieved but he no longer has the “it” factor against elite foes.

Prediction record for 2011: 92% (57-5)
Prediction record for 2010: 85% (218-40)
 

You can contact Marty at mmulcahey@elpasotel.net or visit him at www.facebook.com/fivedogs .



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