Whenever HBO televises a ho-hum show, I assume
manager/TV network executive puppeteer Al Haymon is somewhere in the building.
This is such a night, as talented and exciting Adrien Broner takes on a good
but beatable foe that should make Broner look great. Nothing against Broner but
the matchmaking creates as much electricity as his dad brushing Broner’s hair
after a fight. The opener is another Al Haymon special with Haymon-managed
Keith Thurman cutting to the front of the line for his HBO debut. I think Thurman
has HBO-level potential and might have earned his way to an appearance
eventually but Thurman’s current résumé does not merit this big stage. Certainly
not against Orlando Lora (at least on “ShoBox,” Thurman would be tested by
another young gun), who is an ESPN2-level opponent at this point of his career.
It is enough to make you root for the recent string of upsets to continue but
then Haymon would sign the upset winners and get them an HBO date in September.
At the U.S. Bank
Arena, Cincinnati, OH (HBO) Adrien
Broner (23-0) vs. Vicente Escobedo
(26-3) (The Ring magazine #3 junior lightweight vs. unranked) [Editor’s note: The
WBO junior lightweight belt is only on the line for Escobedo. Adrien
Broner failed to make the 130-pound weight limit (coming at 3.5 pounds over)
thus forfeiting his title belt. Broner will be allowed to weigh no more than
140 pounds this morning and will likely also forfeit a percentage of his purse
to Escobedo.] (HBO) Keith
Thurman (17-0) vs. Orlando Lora
(29-2-2)
Orlando Lora – I first heard about Lora in a Gary Shaw press release
stating he was a Mexican Olympian but could not find Lora’s name in any
official 2000 Sydney Olympic results (Mexico had six participants and Lora was
not one of them). I don’t dispute Lora was an elite amateur but was surprised
he was not moved faster given those credentials. Lora continued to box as an
amateur until age 23, turning pro nine years ago. Now 31-years-old, Lora uses
an aggressively taxing style suited for a mature frame (5’10” with a big upper
body) like his. A prototypical wear-you-down banger, much like a Marco Antonio
Rubio, he slowly makes up ground landing more significant punches as the rounds
progress. By the fifth and sixth rounds, Lora’s accuracy comes to the forefront
and if given the opportunity, he will maul and brawl on the inside. Takes small
steps forward, filling holes left by backtracking opponents, with Lora’s hands
either traveling toward the target or up on defense. A 58% kayo ratio flatters
to deceive, coming largely against low-level opposition. Lora lacks elite hand
speed, relying on thudding punches to wear opponents down to his speed level
and reel them in. Consistently targets the body and is not overly neglectful on
defense with occasional shoulder rolls or leaning away from punches. Does his
best work with the right hand and Lora can be accurate with singular punches
from the outside against foes lacking foot speed. Trainer Abel Sanchez says
Lora is a good student and did well sparring Antonio Margarito and Fernando
Angulo, never worrying about the mature boxer’s (has a wife and children) work
ethic or his partying the night away. Lora was badly outclassed by gatekeeper
David Estrada but his team claims it was the result of a liver infection and Lora
took off 11 months after the setback. In last significant fight, against Paulie
Malignaggi in October, Lora did not throw enough punches, looking sluggish
launching wide, unimaginative punches losing all but one round. In his last
three fights, Lora has gone 1-1-1, drawing in his last outing with a 7-2-2
unknown in Mexico. Given Lora’s failures against quality foes, he probably
understands this to be his last chance to make an impression and secure future
TV dates.
Keith Thurman – Rangy puncher with frightening power has star potential,
knocking out his first 10 opponents, but has yet to find someone to test him as
a professional. Thurman began boxing at age seven, training for power to accentuate
his natural strength (emulating idols Mike Tyson and Roberto Duran), knowing it
hindered his amateur progress. Despite that, had a distinguished amateur
career, packing a PAL and U.S. National title, silver medal in the 2008 Olympic
trial (losing to Demetrius Andrade) and 76 stoppages into 101 wins. Amateur
coach Ben Getty described Thurman as a combination of Duran and Miguel Cotto
before passing away. Trainer Dan Birmingham (of Winky Wright and Jeff Lacy fame)
has plenty to work with in a 23-year-old slugger, standing 5’11” with an
intimidating reach. Honed his skills sparring champions Andre Berto, Winky
Wright, Chad Dawson, Antonio Tarver and Jeff Lacy and is probably where Thurman
became a better counterpuncher than given credit for. Employs a relaxed fluid
style despite standing a bit straight and lacking a consistent jab (using it as
a range finder). Thurman’s amateur power traveled up to the pros, stopping 16
of 17 foes and has only gone eight rounds once. Two names on Thurman’s résumé stand
out as proficient, Favio Medina and former Cuban amateur Stalinn Lopez, with 10
others sporting sub-.500 records. Missed all of 2011 with a fractured hand and
knuckle injury but scored two decent wins this year. A dedicated body puncher, scoring
three stoppages with his attack and setting up plenty more, Thurman dips and
torques into shots when a foe is on the ropes. Hurts opponents with either hand
but starts and finishes majority of victims with a striking left hook.
Impressive timing lends an awe factor and doubles impact of punches, leading
people to underestimate the manner in which Thurman uses his feet to set up
shots. If he develops an intelligent jab to hide or set up his power punches,
Thurman can become a beast in the mold of James Kirkland. Defense needs
development (knocked down in the first round by Quandray Robertson while rushing
for a kayo), relying on reflexes rather than head movement. Self-confident
without being brash, Thurman knows the importance of looking good on HBO.
Thurman explained to writer Jake Donovan, “It’s highly important to make a
statement. I want them to know that I belong in that elite class of fighters.”
Verdict – This is going to end in an ugly fashion with not much
to analyze since Thurman holds every advantage except physical size, judging
from press-conference pictures. The only time Lora was stopped is when the
ringside doctor called a halt because of accumulated punishment. I see a
similar stoppage tonight with Lora taking too much punishment and not showing
the capability of rescuing himself with a big or lucky punch. Thurman cruises
and looks good since he sees every slow and looping punch from Lora coming with
the fight stopped between the fifth and sixth round.
Vicente Escobedo – Californian has the abilities to stare down champions
and keep pace with them in stretches but lacked a key ingredient to overcome a
quality champion so far. In three losses, to Robert Guerrero, Michael Katsidis
and Daniel Jimenez, Escobedo was pushed to the limit by physical brutes, losing
distance decisions. Escobedo faded late against Jimenez, suffering a last-round
knockdown in a split decision loss and Katsidis got the judges’ nod through
superior volume. The Guerrero loss is the only fight where Escobedo was outclassed
but he showed heart battling through two knockdowns and a cut to win the last
round (a bloodied Escobedo proposed to his wife after the fight). Escobedo has
plugged away on smaller cards televised by Telefutura, ESPN and minor
pay-per-views, getting back into the title picture, besting veterans Rocky
Juarez and Juan Ruiz. Gained the ring awareness to beat quality pros through a
superb amateur career (beat Anthony Peterson twice in the Olympic trials),
winning two National PAL titles and a USA National championship, besting Paulie
Malignaggi. Finished as a 2004 Olympian but disappointed with a second round
exit. Escobedo did not meet the high expectations in the pros initially that
his pedigree fashioned. It seemed every time Escobedo ran up a string of
victories to get to the precipice of a title shot, he lost or looked bad in a
pivotal fight. Overcame that reputation, beating former champions Kevin Kelley
and Carlos Hernandez. Until last 2010, was studiously learning his trade under
the hyper-observant eye of Mexican training icon Ignacio “Nacho” Beristain
(Freddie Roach before that) but has now settled in with the respected Joel
Diaz. Escobedo says the past is still with him, especially in the form of
outstanding sparring with Juan Manuel Marquez. Inside the ropes, Escobedo’s
hands are more quick than fast and he still has the reflexes to choose and
launch a punch when an unexpected opening presents itself. Escobedo is back at
his natural weight, never losing at 130 pounds, after recovering from a torn
ligament in his right hand for which he underwent surgery. Two of Escobedo’s setbacks
were via split decision and some of the ring generalship that set up accurate
punches was not appreciated by judges. Now, the mature 30-year-old feels he has
solved the puzzle, finally putting all the parts into place to win a world
title.
Adrien Broner – Cincinnati produced great fighters like Aaron Pryor,
Freddie Miller, Ezzard Charles and Tim Austin. Adrien Broner wants his name
added to that roster of greats. Started boxing at age six, winning a national
Silver Gloves tourney and, more importantly, sparred against three-time
Olympian Rau’shee Warren every day. Success eluded Broner at senior tourneys
but he was always a difficult out with nearly 300 amateur bouts to his credit.
A speed-burner with excellent defensive reflexes, Broner has shown an ability
to use that speed on offense, knocking out 19 of 23 opponents. Improves
continuously in every facet because of a gym rat work ethic as his father
coaches from the corner. Another animal comparative is a peacock with Broner’s
prancing assuredness paying off for fans when he takes daring chances to make
himself look great. This cockiness (claiming his ring I.Q. is an equivalent of Albert
Einstein's) rubs some the wrong way but ensures Broner isn’t lost in Golden
Boy’s large stable. I emphasize that speed is a lynchpin of Broner’s game;
however, it is not his sole attribute since Broner sports a ring presence well
beyond his 22 years. That shows on defense, rarely squaring up to an opponent
while employing a Mayweather-style shoulder roll to protect himself. Broner
wants to incorporate angles and jab more, aiding himself as he matures and
inevitably meets someone equally fast. An aggressive nature, the Daniel Ponce
de Leon bout aside, reminds of Andre Berto, sprinkled with a little bit of
Pernell Whitaker. Well-timed rapid combinations are Broner’s hallmark; his
hooks looping at times, lessening the impact, but still arrive with astonishing
swiftness. Possesses a killer instinct and his legs’ wide stance could be a
problem when Broner faces a slick champion or veteran mover. Nicknamed “The
Problem”, like other precocious and immature young men, Broner has overcome
problems with the law. At 5’7”, is an average size lightweight with a lot of
bulk in the upper body that translates into solid punching power. Broner stopped
13 of his last 14 opponents with only a disputed decision over the rejuvenated
Ponce de Leon breaking up his streak. That points victory lacked refinement and
aggression; subsequently, Broner reassured many taking out Jason Litzau (TKO 1)
and undefeated Eloy Perez in less than five rounds. Broner needs more of that
tonight given a lack of fan approval to date and their tendency to look at
Broner’s post-fight antics more than what he accomplishes in the ring.
Verdict – Broner’s speed is a key issue but he also has the
legs and upper body strength to push Escobedo backward, exposing defensive flaws.
Look for Broner to start quickly, weaving under Escobedo’s straight right hand
and jabs, scoring quick counters and lead rights. Escobedo is rocked and
dropped in the middle rounds but strikes back against an onrushing Broner to
show he still has his senses. Broner’s fast hands take over from that point,
keeping Escobedo off balance and in a hesitant inactive state. There may be a
championship round knockdown but Escobedo shows his toughness again lasting the
distance. The lopsided final scores because of knockdowns will not be
indicative of an overall entertaining fight.
Prediction record
for 2012: 84% (68-13) Prediction record in 2011: 88% (138-19) Prediction record in 2010: 85% (218-40)
