Showtime’s main event between Robert Guerrero and
Selcuk Aydin is the type of fight the network established its reputation for,
picking quality match-ups with the potential to turn into a great fight. Most
famously, Showtime pulled the trick in the first Diego Corrales-Jose Luis
Castillo war and followed it up with the four-fight Rafael Marquez-Israel
Vazquez series. More recently, the Orlando Salido-Juan Manuel Lopez slugfests
and the four-man bantamweight tourney pairings stand out for their quality. I
believe the Aydin-Guerrero fight has “Fight of the Year” potential, pitting a
slick boxer whose toughness is underrated against a fearsome banger whose
boxing intellect is overlooked. With any luck, both misconceptions will be
erased by the action produced in the ring tonight. Essentially, the pair is
fighting for the right to become the mandatory contender to Floyd Mayweather
but only a stirring or emphatic win can get the winner a place at Mayweather’s
pay-per-view table.
At the HP Pavilion,
San Jose, CA (Showtime) Robert
Guerrero (29-1-1) vs. Selcuk Aydin
(23-0) (The Ring magazine #2 lightweight vs. #9 welterweight) (Showtime) Shawn
Porter (19-0) vs. Alfonso Gomez
(23-5-2)
Alfonso Gomez – First became a recognizable name due to his success
on the original “The Contender” TV series but afterward, worked hard to become
a legitimate contender. Achieved legitimacy stopping ill-fated Arturo Gatti and
earned admiration rebounding from a beatdown at the hands of Miguel Cotto,
registering five consecutive wins over solid opposition. Gomez began boxing at
age 10, establishing an 80-10 amateur record, winning the Mexican title but not
qualifying for the Olympics. In an important professional win, surprised most
by repelling the aggressive onslaught of Jesus Soto Karass, picking him apart
with fluid and well-timed counters. Showed heart in Cotto loss, going back to
the gym to correct flaws exposed by Cotto as shown against Karass and
subsequent win over Jose Luis Castillo. Still trained by his father, who
coached Gomez since the amateurs. Suffered a cut against Karass, which caused
the fight’s stoppage, and has had problems with cuts and swelling in other
fights. Displayed a quick and consistent jab beating Jose Luis Castillo but
could not repeat that against Saul Alvarez, suffering a sixth round stoppage in
Gomez’s last fight 10 months ago. It may be a thing good that Gomez curbed his
activity given his draining style, only fighting twice in 2011 and once in 2010
to recharge his batteries. Can Gomez continue to utilize a previously underused
jab, which he popped out at a solid pace against volume-punching Karass and
Castillo? Gomez showed against pressure fighters Arturo Gatti, Ben Tackie, Karass
and Castillo that he has the brains to overcome an opponent who lacks speed or
variety. Did well counterpunching Gatti and Tackie and his blows do more damage
than a 40% kayo ratio indicates. Has ring smarts (did not retaliate despite
Karass’ multiple fouls) and aggression to overcome lack of world-class hand
speed but Gomez needs to be careful not to start combinations from a distance.
When successful, it is largely because of Gomez’s feet, which are quick to
place him in a position to lead or counter. Gomez admits being a brawler at
heart, “I put pressure on, come forward, throw a lot of punches.” It was good
seeing Gomez’s work ethic rewarded but at age 31, many think he has seen his
best days…just like the TV show that made him famous.
Shawn Porter – Ohio native is working his way down in a good way,
slimming himself to welterweight from a debut weight of 165 pounds. Porter was
an amateur star, beating fellow pro prospect Fernando Guerrero as well as
Olympians Shawn Estrada and Demetrius Andrade despite physical disadvantages.
Finished his internship with a 276-14 record and plenty of national titles
(Golden Gloves among them) while participating in many international tourneys.
Missed out on participating in the 2008 Olympics, losing in an upset to Daniel
Jacobs, but made the team as an alternate. Porter is learning quickly as a pro,
getting quality work at Freddie Roach’s Wild Card Gym, becoming Manny
Pacquiao’s main sparring partner for two camps. Also sparred with former middleweight
champion Kelly Pavlik and went as high as light heavyweight to spar champ Chad
Dawson. Helpful hints from master coach Freddie Roach have aided Porter’s father
who still trains his son and has not been a problem to date. Porter has shaken
his amateur tendencies, stopping 14 of 19 opponents, mixing elite hand speed
and combination punching with well-placed power shots. Most compare Porter to
Andre Berto but I see a bit of Fernando Montiel and Meldrick Taylor (OK,
nowhere near those two at this stage
of his career. Maybe a Sharmba Mitchell comparison is more apt?) influences
since Porter has better feet and shown himself more mobile than Berto. Porter
moves in and out of range with snappy foot work, all along bouncing happily on
his toes, looking for openings his angles create. The 24-year-old flashes fast
combinations but has the eagerness to engage opponents head-on despite
advantages in speed and ability. It is somewhat disconcerting that Porter is
not more heavy-handed as he moves down in weight with two of his last four
fights (against his best opponents to date) going the 10-round distance.
Despite that, has never been pushed on the scorecards and it shows Porter has
no problems in the stamina department. One obvious item that could hold Porter
back is a lack of height and reach, standing a reported 5’7” “tall” in a
division where 5’10” is more the norm. It is the reason Porter’s team is slimming
him down despite a heavy musculature. A good-looking prospect with lofty
ambitions and fine amateur pedigree, Porter is now making a move to become a
main event attraction.
Verdict – This fight is a matter of timing in two ways.
Firstly, this is Porter’s time, a boxer entering his physical prime while Gomez
is at the end of his, relying on guile to win now. Secondly, after two rounds,
Porter will have timed Gomez’s punches and assessed weaknesses, slowly breaking
him down and busting up his face up to score a late-round stoppage. Gomez has
been too inactive to deal with a fast combination puncher like Porter and will
be unable to time a flash like him. Gomez is willing but will be beaten to the
punch consistently. In short, Porter’s combinations will play havoc with Gomez
all night and I don’t think this fight hears the final bell.
Selcuk Aydin – Menacing former Turkish Olympian’s nickname is
“Little Tyson” and like Mike Tyson, had to temper his emotions after turning
pro because of a five-year amateur suspension for attacking a referee. Also,
like Tyson, Aydin packs destructive power in both hands (74% kayo ratio), which
may be why other aspects of his impressive skill set have not been appreciated
since turning pro six years ago. Aydin competed in and won prestigious
international tourneys with over 350 amateur bouts to his credit, becoming a
highly sought after prize by European promoters. Since turning pro, the
28-year-old has done nothing untoward and impressed ring observers with his
work ethic and subtle tricks that accentuate fierce power. It is why Aydin has
been avoided, a number one contender for nearly three years, despite his
willingness to fight in America, previously. While strength is Aydin’s calling
card, he has gone 12 rounds without a problem, dominating competent South
African Lucky Lewele. Twice bested borderline contender Ionut Dan Ion (also
known as Jo-Jo Dan) over that distance, breaking Ion’s jaw in the second fight,
dropping him in the first and 11th round. Defeated Said Ouali in
America over 12 rounds and both Ouali and Ion are southpaws like Guerrero.
Former two-division champion (super middle and light heavyweight) Graciano
Rocchigiani trained Aydin after turning pro, commenting on his pupil, “Selcuk
is an aggressive fighter who loves to come forward. The only difference between
us is that he hits way harder than I ever did. He’s got enormous punch power.”
Boxes with his hands high, a covering guard a bit like Arthur Abraham’s, but does
not jab enough from that position despite displaying fast hands even when
lopping a blow. In cases where Aydin does not get a stoppage, he still has the
kind of thudding power that leaves opponents passive on offense, trying to
avoid mistakes. His chin has been dented but Aydin recuperated quickly in every
case to resume his attacks. Aydin spent last month in San Jose preparing and
getting acclimated and is not mincing words about this opportunity, “I am not
planning to leave the decision to the judges. I didn't come to California to
outbox or outscore Guerrero. I will walk right through ‘The Ghost’ and take the
belt back home to Turkey. I can hit hard but I will also box.” The best current
boxer that Americans are aware of to compare Aydin to is Lucas Matthysse since
both their mixes of abilities and unrelenting forward-churning power can be
overwhelming.
Robert Guerrero - The last time fans saw Guerrero, he fashioned a
crafty 12-round victory over Michael Katsidis 15 months ago but since then, he
underwent shoulder surgery and moved up two weight classes. Before that,
Guerrero outthought borderline Hall-of-Famer Joel Casamayor (unfairly
criticized for the measured approach he took against a dangerous foe) and
dominated Vicente Escobedo in distance wins. The laidback Californian is a
two-division champion (sorry, I don’t count interim belts) who has overachieved
considering the mental strain he and his wife, Casey, (who courageously
overcame leukemia) have endured. Thankfully, the disease is in remission and
Guerrero can fully devote himself mentally to boxing. In the past, I unfairly
underrated Guerrero. For some reason, I chose to remember his loss to Gamaliel
Diaz more than impressive stoppage victories over the likes of Jason Litzau,
Spend Abazi and Efren Hinojosa. Why? I am not sure. I just did and Guerrero
made me regret my evaluations and picks against him. Guerrero is a snappy-punching
southpaw, his diverse abilities allowing him to box patiently before switching
into seek-and-destroy mode if a foe is hurt. A former featherweight and junior
lightweight titlist, he was huge for those weight classes but it does not look
like his power traveled with him to lightweight (even though Guerrero’s power
is predicated on speed as much as pure punching with his punching accuracy
adding to the impact). Guerrero turns over his punches well from a distance and
finds space by taking judicious backward steps when needed. However, in other
instances, unleashed nice uppercuts inside. On defense, Guerrero seems a bit
stiff, not rolling with punches and standing too tall during exchanges. When on
defense, crowds opponents enough to absorb the impact of punches instead of taking
full brunt at range. At 29, Guerrero is exiting his physical prime and looks
best when moving forward behind a forceful jab and accurate hooks. At lower
weights, was the complete package, eliminating minor flaws while adding new
tools to his offensive arsenal despite never replacing his father as trainer.
Because of the odd circumstance of his no-contest against Daud Yordan, cut by a
hard headbutt, Guerrero was unjustly downgraded in terms of toughness. Now that
his wife’s medical issues are behind them, perhaps a more focused Guerrero can
go on to fulfill the star potential many saw in him to begin with. Maybe that
Floyd Mayweather bout Guerrero has been hyping for a year now is not
implausible after all.
Verdict – I have wavered and changed my mind on the outcome of
this fight all week since plausible scenarios for either man emerging with a
victory are easy to envision. In the final analysis, I went against a
longstanding rule of mine, choosing my gut feeling over what my brain tells me.
I am picking Selcuk Aydin to rally late in the fight and score a close decision
win or late stoppage over a brave but physically outgunned Guerrero. The
referee could play a major factor in this fight. If he separates the boxers
quickly or warns Aydin for roughhousing in the early part of the match, it is a
clear advantage to a Guerrero already fighting on home turf. I think many are
under the false impression that Aydin has not been in the ring with talented
boxers before. Aydin has shared the ring with elite boxers since his teens and
rarely come in second-best. Guerrero will outspeed and outbox Aydin early,
building a nice lead, but Guerrero will be troubled by Aydin’s incessant
pressure as he has been in other fights. Orlando Salido beat Guerrero (changed
to a no-contest after Salido tested positive for steroids) with physicality and
Malcolm Klassen gave him problems in the second half of their fight. I see the
same with Aydin who will slowly reel in Guerrero as his pressure and bodywork
takes effect from round six on. That is when Aydin cuts off the ring
successfully and score with his underappreciated accuracy. It will be a
dramatic affair featuring momentum changes in the middle rounds as Guerrero is
forced to stand his ground with Aydin scoring a stoppage or two knockdowns in
the championship rounds to secure a victory.
Prediction record
for 2012: 84% (72-13) Prediction record in 2011: 88% (138-19) Prediction record in 2010: 85% (218-40)
