It
takes two exceptional boxers to turn a fight between a pair of little men into
a big event; I believe HBO has such a feature tomorrow night. The Nonito
Donaire - Toshiaki Nishioka bout is a better main event in terms of talent and
stylistic matchup than most pay-per-view headliners. As a duo, they have not
lost a fight since 2004, are on a 44-bout winning streak, triumphed in 20 title
fights and are considered the two best junior featherweights in the world. Fans
will need to be as sharp as the boxers to absorb the intricacies since the
combatants have earned their nicknames of “Filipino Flash” and “Speed King.”
But wait…tomorrow night’s broadcast has more to offer. HBO’s Max Kellerman says
the Brandon Rios - Mike Alvarado battle preceding the main event will be an
epic brawl that will steal the show. I do not discount that possibility but for
connoisseurs of the “Sweet Science” I can’t see anything toping Donaire –
Nishioka in the foreseeable future.
At the Home Depot Center,
Carson, CA
(HBO) Nonito Donaire (29-1) vs. Toshiaki Nishioka (39-4-3)
(For The Ring magazine vacant World Junior
Featherweight Championship)
(IBF
and WBO junior featherweight belts)
(HBO) Brandon Rios (30-0-1) vs. Mike Alvarado (33-0)
(The Ring magazine unranked junior welterweight
vs. #5)
Mike Alvarado – Denver native is one of the few legitimate prospects to come out of the Midwest
in recent years, registering a 70% kayo ratio and stopping 10 of his last 12
opponents. Despite that statistic, Alvarado tries to box smartly in the opening
rounds, using superior balance and infighting techniques he complements with
skills learned competing at national high school wrestling tournaments. Started
boxing at age 20, fashioning a 36-5 amateur record, splitting two fights with Andre
Dirrell but never won a major national competition. Despite the initial
impression I had of Alvarado, he falls outside the category of a boxer who does
everything well without excelling in a particular area. He is an excellent
stalker, closing distances and filling spaces with a punch or forward momentum.
Was impressive dismantling former champion Cesar Bazan in 2008, displaying a
formidable jab before dropping Bazan with a right hook. Alvarado’s kayo of
Emmanuel Clottey was worthy of “Knockout of the Year” consideration with
Clottey dropping as if falling through a trapdoor. Alvarado puts in solid
bodywork to set up attrition stoppages if the brilliant one does not arrive
like his recent demolition of Ray Narh. He has slowly won me over as I did not
see him as world-class or even a top 10 boxer at first. Perhaps because
Alvarado’s hand speed and power are not in an elite class and he generally
scores tactical stoppages instead of highlight reel hooks. Held his own in
sparring sessions against a smaller Yuriorkis Gamboa, so his timing - if not
speed - is excellent. Alvarado is a Fernando Vargas-type, making up for a lack
of physical skills with intelligent movement and accuracy. Can hurt opponents
with either hand and does not show stamina problems, going 10 hard rounds with
relative ease. Alvarado had a bicep injury in 2010 which hampered him and
limited Alvarado to two bouts that year. By all accounts, Alvarado has turned
his personal life around, which caused him to miss out on high-profile bouts
(against Paulie Malignaggi), serving two prison sentences for alcohol and
driving-related incidents. Unlike higher-profile prospects, Alvarado really had
to work for this title opportunity, lending him a sense of animus and mental
steeling for this title opportunity. At age 32, with eight years of hard pro
work behind him, the stage is set for Alvarado to succeed or fail tomorrow night.
Brandon Rios - Another well-respected Oxnard product, who, before a victory over Lamont
Peterson, had not fully made the transition from amateur star to full-fledged
title prospect. The corner work of former world titlist Robert Garcia, who has
his great reputation, looks to have sunk in and created an intelligent
destroyer. Rios began boxing at age eight, reportedly compiling a 230-35 record
and winning two national titles en route to a spot on the Olympic team as an
alternate. As a pro, Rios had a couple of close decisions go his way, mostly
because his combinations are eye-catching and produce a solid pop. I saw Rios’
fight against Carlos Guevara in person and expected more of his promised hand
speed. I did not get the feel of a surefire future champion from Rios but his
opponent’s grabbing style does not bring out the best in sluggers. Consecutive
blowouts over fellow prospects Jorge Teron and Anthony Peterson marked Rios
ready for a title challenge and removed the concerns I had seeing him live.
Rios puts punches together well, a result of sparring with champions like Marco
Antonio Barrera, and goes to the body consistently and with seemingly enjoyable
malice. Championship seasoning has brought increased accuracy to his hooks and
solid punchers have not been able to dent his chin. If anything, retaliating
with hard punches wakes up Rios for his now-patented late-round charges.
Basically, is a strong kid and I like that aggressive passion Rios exudes when
he finds a rhythm. In the coming-out fight against Teron, Rios pressed and
blitzed a surprised foe, working combinations from body to head with equal
zest. Against Peterson, Rios’ intelligent aggression left no room for
countering and his punches landed with such accuracy that there was no escape
for his paralyzed foe. A negative aspect to Rios, which fans saw on HBO’s
“24/7” series, is Rios’s sometimes abrasive personality that included mimicking
Freddie Roach’s Parkinson’s Disease. At age 26, there is no excuse for such
childishness, which has spilled over to his boxing, missing the 135-pound weight
limit in consecutive title fights. Says of his fighting style, “I’m very
aggressive; I like to come forward a lot. I’ve always been like that - I like
to put a lot of pressure on my opponent.” Given the strong opponent, tomorrow night
will tell if Rios is as skilled as many believe or if his biggest wins are only
size and weight-aided victories.
Verdict – I
believe Mike Alvarado was put into a holding pattern against average opposition
waiting for this title shot, which has stagnated Alvarado and perhaps seen him
regress. The Breidis Prescott performance, where a late rally saved Alvarado,
is an example of this. If that version of Alvarado appears, Rios will score an
emphatic victory. It is difficult to predict how much better or worse Rios will
be at junior welterweight but the fact that he could concentrate on his foe
vice making weight is important. Rios has the better cornerman and
preoperational environment, which plays into the outcome of an evenly-matched
bout like this. For me, it comes down to Rios being slightly faster, more
versatile on offense and closing out fights stronger. Both men should enjoy
stretches of dominance since both lose focus mentally but Rios’ rounds will be
more eye-catching with sharper punching created by his accuracy from distance.
Alvarado is more of a mauler that gets his points on the inside, landing
occasional long rights as he pushes Rios off or as Rios backs out of
engagements in straight lines. The judges will appreciate Rios’ work more and I
envision an eight-to-four rounds victory by Rios aided by his sweeping the
championship rounds.
Toshiaki Nishioka - The
36-year-old champion has won 16 consecutive bouts, 10 via stoppage, a slick
speedster whose unpredictable movement sublimely supplements stinging power.
Undefeated for eight years, what makes Nishioka special are nimble feet, which
disguise somewhat slowing punching patterns that send him darting in every
direction at the blink of an eye. Nishioka did not gain the nickname of “Speed
King” for nothing and his attacking blueprint is never repeated from the same
angle in a given round. This strains opposing boxers attempting to calculate
the trajectory of punches, doubly exasperated since the punches come at them
from a southpaw stance. Some American fans might remember Nishioka overcoming a
first-round knockdown to brutally kayo (with one straight left hand) Jhonny
Gonzalez in Mexico. Nishioka is special because of his mental strength and is not
afraid to travel having boxed in North America four times and Europe once. The
champ overcame two losses and two draws in early career title challenges, as
well as an Achilles’ heel injury before finally winning a world title in his
fifth attempt. Has one-punch stopping power in his left hand but generally
stuns foes with a punch before overwhelming them with follow-up flurries. A
nimble boxer, Nishioka works a blinding jab followed by solid punches that cut
the air with cunning accuracy. Punches are made more dangerous when Nishioka
repositions himself an instant before releasing a combination, cutting the
distance his blows travel and creating unorthodox angles. Rarely is Nishioka
not moving, either throwing punches or jitterbugging laterally to aid his
defense and create a new path to exploit. Though constantly moving, he is an
economical puncher, refusing to throw punches for the sake of activity.
Consider Nishioka a sharpshooter, a sniper whose victims often never see the
punch that gets ‘em. Has a great sense of space, staying at the edges of his
opponent’s reach, waiting for the right moment to attack, which American fans
finally got to witness up close when Nishioka easily outpointed power-punching
former champion Rafael Marquez. Is tricky to track down on offense without
running into a straight punch when he stops and pivots on a dime. Has held the
title for over two-and-a-half years now with seven successful defenses and is a
late bloomer whose confidence is sky high at the moment. Nishioka should go
down as one of the more unique boxers of this era, able to switch from leading
to counterpunching at will.
Nonito Donaire - Despite Donaire’s knockout of Vic Darchinyan - one of the last decade’s
best - I remained unsure about his legitimacy until his destruction of Fernando
Montiel. Given title defense victories over well-qualified contenders and
fellow champions, my skepticism flew in the face of reality. I have made a
180-degree reversal in accepting Donaire as an elite fighter. At 29, Donaire is
in his prime and has a wealth of amateur experience (he came to America at age
10) to fall back upon in a crisis. Trained by Robert Garcia, after a messy
breakup with his father/trainer, Nonito Sr., Donaire has toyed and worked on
tricks against solid foes like Hernan Marquez. Following that win, scored a
frightfully easy kayo of former champion Volodymyr Sydorenko. Donaire’s
offensive variety intimidates and causes hesitation in opponents, as was the
case with underrated Omar Narvaez and Wilfredo Vasquez Jr. Donaire’s all-around
boxing skills are multiplied by abundant hand speed, using a 5’5½” frame and
long arms to reach every part of an opponent’s body. Moniker of “Filipino
Flash” is justified, hiding thunderbolts of power behind a blindingly stiff
jab. A Filipino (who competed for a spot on the American Olympic team, losing
to Brian Viloria), Donaire is only second to legendary Manny Pacquiao in terms
of fan appeal. Before becoming a champion, matured his style by sparring
champions like Joel Casamayor and Pacquiao. At times, Donaire gives up too much
of the ring to opponents but that might be done purposely to encourage foes to
punch more. Donaire moves backward and sideways well, luring opponents into
mistakes as they advance. This worked to perfection against Darchinyan,
dropping the cocky Armenian with a left hook worthy of The Ring’s “Knockout of the Year” award. Kayos are what inspire
Donaire, “I always want to look for a knockout. That is the best way to victory
you can achieve in a fight. I don’t want to be cocky or sound cocky but that is
the best motivation for a fight and what I keep in my head.” Wants to ramp up
his activity, only fighting twice last year and three times in 2010, and given
his exciting style, Donaire could still become this generation’s Michael
Carbajal. Received some criticism for employing scandal-ridden steroid doctor
Victor Conte as his dietician. Donaire is currently ranked at number five
pound-for-pound by The Ring magazine;
tomorrow night will go a long way to either justifying or proving critics wrong
about his high ranking.
Verdict – The
intangibles line up for Donaire yet I still get a lingering feeling Nishioka
will pull off another impressive win on foreign soil. I have been a longtime
booster of Nishioka but think this fight came a year too late for him and at
just the right time for Donaire. Nishioka will stay out of Donaire’s danger zone
and this fight could turn into a tactical affair because of both men’s
defensive adjustments and rapid reaction times. Thus the more youthful and
reflexive Donaire should be awarded a deserved decision on the basis of
accuracy and ring generalship. What makes both Donaire and Nishioka
pound-for-pound talents is that they have no predictabilities or tip-offs. A
slightly (and that is all it takes when elite boxers face each other) slowing
Nishioka will have difficulties landing clean shots while avoiding clever
counters and Donaire’s speed advantage. Donaire will need to be weary of
Nishioka’s sharp angled attacks from the southpaw stance and Donaire had
trouble tracking southpaw Omar Narvaez down offensively last year . I expect
some truly great spontaneous combinations from both boxers. Nishioka is a fast
starter, so that is the chance he has to establish himself as the dominant
force if Donaire does not match his aggression. Whoever wins, I believe
American fight fans will be pleasantly surprised by Nishioka, an entertaining
fighter who came to these shores just a tad too late to upset a fighter like
Donaire in his prime.
Prediction
record for 2012: 84% (102-20)
Prediction
record in 2011: 88% (138-19)
Prediction
record in 2010: 85% (218-40)
