Showtime
is spoiling subscribers who purchase the network for boxing events, providing
fans a quadruple-header show for a second straight month. They are also attaching
quality to the quantity with six of eight boxers rated in the top 10 and the
other two having good arguments for being rated. Not only is it a great TV
card, the fans who attend live will get their money’s worth since many of the
boxers are local products. Something that has gone missing in the age of casino
cards packaged for TV, which has made the hometown attraction nearly
irrelevant. This show is so stacked that the “TV Cheat Sheet” can’t keep up…only
doing full previews on co-main events. For the other two match-ups, Peter Quillin
vs. Hassan N’Dam N’Jikam and Randall Bailey vs. Devon Alexander, I only posted
predictions. That comes down to a simple matter of space since I try to keep my
word-count below that of a Tolkien novel.
At
the Barclays Center, New York City, NY
(Showtime) Danny Garcia (24-0) vs. Erik Morales (52-8)
(For The Ring magazine World Junior
Welterweight Championship)
(WBC
and WBA junior welterweight belts)
(Showtime) Paul Malignaggi (31-4) vs. Pablo Cano (25-1-1)
(The Ring magazine #4 welterweight vs. unranked)
(WBA
welterweight belt)
(Showtime) Peter Quillin (27-0) vs. Hassan N’Dam N’Jikam (27-0)
(The Ring magazine #9 middleweight vs. #7)
(WBO
middleweight belt)
(Showtime) Randall Bailey (43-7) vs. Devon Alexander (23-1)
(The Ring magazine #7 welterweight vs. unranked)
(IBF
welterweight belt)
The
Openers:
Peter Quillin (27-0) vs. Hassan N’Jikam (27-0)
Verdict – For
me, this is the most intriguing and difficult bout to pick. N’Jikam is not some
European slouch but a very good and confident fighter entering with a solid amateur
pedigree which saw him make the 2004 Olympics where he eliminated Andy Lee. The
French-based Cameroonian likes to bounce on his feet a bit too much and won’t
be fast enough to settle on his punches against a Quillin who can match him in
physical ability. An advantage N’Jikam has is unpredictability, as likely to
lead with a left hook to the head as a straight jab to the stomach with nary a
tipoff. I believe Quillin’s small size advantage and more consistent offense
gets him a win at home with N’Jikam lacking the big punch to swing the fight in
his favor on the road or late in the fight. If the fight takes place at range,
the quicker hands of N’Jikam can prevail but N’Jikam’s chin has been dented and
is questionable so he needs to stay out of the trenches. It could end in a
controversial decision - with N’Jikam
landing the flashier punches - and if this bout were held in neutral territory,
N’Jikam could win over the crowd with his daring offense. The better body work
of Quillin can also play a role, bringing N’Jikam off his toes and making him
stationary thus not as loose on offense. I can see a close N’Jikam victory too
but the combination punching of Quillin is more likely to be recognized and
rewarded by New York judges who have seen him perform before. If this fight
takes place in France, N’Jikam wins; it is that close and the added comfort of
fighting at home is the small difference a competitive fight like this hinges
on.
Randall Bailey (43-7) vs. Devon Alexander (23-1)
Verdict – In
his title-winning performance, Bailey slowly reeled in and knocked out a slower
and less savvy Mike Jones. Can he do the same against a faster but more
vulnerable Alexander? I am of the mind that he cannot; Bailey has made a habit
of rescuing fights and his career with big punches. However, he needs the help
of opponents and ever since Alexander struggled with Lucas Matthysse, he has
played power-punchers smart and safe. Alexander bested a similarly strong Marcos
Maidana in his last fight and I see the same blueprint this time with Alexander
staying on the outside, peppering the slower Bailey with accurate jabs and stinging
left hands. The other factor is that Bailey has historically struggled with southpaws
with less shifty lefties like Juan Urango and DeMarcus Corley outmaneuvering
the single bombs of Bailey. If Alexander does get hit, he has shown resiliency
if not an iron chin, scrapping his way out of trouble and surviving to the bell
where his recuperative powers set in. As always, Bailey is dangerous until the
final bell but he can’t track down Alexander with aging legs to score
consistently enough to pull out a victory. Alexander breezes through the first
eight rounds but catches some punches in the final couple stanzas to make the
fight appear closer than it was. Final verdict: the Maidana fight was great
preparation for Alexander who wins nine rounds to three.
The
Co-Main Events:
Pablo Cano – Golden Boy Promotions has been making moves into Mexico, signing talented
prospects before they make a name for themselves on that tough boxing circuit.
Other than Saul Alvarez, Cano is the most obvious example and is a fighter fans
on both sides of the border envision as a future champion. Cano turned pro at
age 16 and still managed to score 17 stoppages against grown men but until last
year, had not elevated his level of opposition when he ventured into deep
waters against legendary Erik Morales. Watch for Cano’s right hand; it has that
thrilling combination of natural power, straightness and accuracy. Maintains
that accuracy through activity and Cano’s six-foot frame is filling out with
muscle that’s deployed through sound balance to generate even more power. I
appreciate Cano’s grit, traveling to Colombia and knocking down touted local
boy Fabian Marimon late in the fight to earn a close victory. Never backed down
from Morales in a respectable loss either. Cano still comes at opponents too straight
but his power and underrated speed rip openings through foes who see it coming
and are unable to react to his quick punches. I would not say Cano is a
“natural” but he is doing things instinctually that more seasoned pros work
hard at perfecting. Should go to the body more but because only three stoppages
have come past the third round, Cano has not had to set up victories. Went 10
rounds without stamina problems and the volume did not dip noticeably in the
late going. Defense has not been tested besides Morales but Cano absorbed punches
from Oscar Leon, Marimon and Morales without hesitating to throw back. Is
confident despite moving up a weight class for this opportunity, “This is the
best preparation I have ever had. I respect Paulie tremendously but I also feel
that my youth, my strength, my motivation and my preparation will guide me to
win. And if I want bigger fights, I have to win this fight to go on to bigger
and better fights.” I was pleased to see Cano had the grit to mix it up with Morales
(taking that opportunity on two weeks’ notice); now I want to see if his feet
are up to fighting someone who can dance. Even with his stoppage loss to
Morales, Cano has delivered what has been promised of him by boxing insiders.
Paul Malignaggi - Is
it me or was Malignaggi “Jersey Shore” before there was a “Jersey Shore”?
Anyone who doesn’t believe personality sells has not followed the career of
Malignaggi. The brash New Yorker is not overly TV-friendly inside the ring,
frustrating foes with a pestering jab and movement that leaves them tripping
over their feet trying to catch the elusive counterpuncher. Outside the ring is
another matter where Malignaggi is a quote machine whose cocksure “tough
Italian kid from Brooklyn” shtick sells. However, it has to be noted,
Malignaggi is not afraid to stand and fight when forced to do so; in fact, he
won over fans in lopsided beatings from Miguel Cotto and Amir Khan. Started
boxing at 16, establishing a solid amateur record as a two-time New York City Golden
Gloves champion and winner of an U.S. Nationals title. Still fights in the
amateur tap-and-move style but that is forced on him by brittle hands which
dogged Malignaggi his entire career. That was not a problem in his last fight,
when Malignaggi shocked experts by traveling to Russia and knocking out veteran
champion Vyacheslav Senchenko. No one doubted his ability to fight through
adversity and Malignaggi has looked better at welterweight. Tough as barbed
wire mentally, staying within punching range of stronger opponents in order to
create angles for weaker punches of his own. Malignaggi is an accurate puncher;
he does not waste punches, only rattling off combinations when available.
Prefers to stay in a dangerous pocket inside the reach of opponents instead of
only working from the outside to pick his shots thus creating less action. The
problem for Malignaggi is that those blows look better than they actually are.
Malignaggi’s punches do not debilitate opponents and are more of an annoyance
then a weapon. Judges reward Malignaggi for the pitty-pat punches and, more
often than not, foes cannot land their punches because of Malignaggi’s deft
footwork and reflexes. The 31-year-old’s body looks fit and toned at 147 and he
has no stamina concerns engaging in 14 fights that went 10 or more rounds.
Malignaggi is hyped to fight in the Brooklyn borough, “Obviously you want to
look good and win in your hometown and put on a festive atmosphere for them, so
that everybody can celebrate afterwards but the focus for me is on winning the
fight first.” Malignaggi’s style is not for everyone but it is an effective one
which leads to victories. Pernell Whitaker would be proud.
Verdict – Just
as the competitive loss to Morales made Cano a better boxer, another respectable
setback to Malignaggi will mature the young Mexican into a future champion. In
some stages against Morales, Cano looked unable to deal with Erik Morales
cutting of the ring with angles and movement. Imagine what Malignaggi will do
with his lively feet and accurate single shots. It is foot speed that I am most
concerned with where Malignaggi has a pronounced advantage and is likely to
dance circles around Cano. Malignaggi sports a great sense of distance and
looks reborn on offense at welterweight, throwing punches with more confidence
and at a higher connect percentage. Cano’s lack of volume, because he cannot
trap Malignaggi, will hurt him with the judges. I see Malignaggi winning the
fight by unanimous decision from a distance after discovering he cannot hurt
Cano, losing four rounds at most.
Danny Garcia – Over the last three years, this Philadelphian developed on television from a
prospect to full-fledged champion. Garcia faced difficult styles and former
champions as part of a maturation process that lead to bona fide Hall-of-Famer
Erik Morales. First showing his mental toughness against Ashley Theophane,
where Garcia remained composed, rallying in the late rounds securing a
contentious split decision victory. One of Golden Boy Promotions’ few East
Coast signings, Garcia made steady progress fighting all over America, only
appearing in the same venue in consecutive fights once. Garcia also has a knack
for delivering his best work when TV’s spotlight shines, showing a strong
mental makeup and eagerness to excel at the highest level. Crystallized in a
stirring out-of-nowhere knockout of Amir Khan three months ago. Garcia’s boxing
skills were instilled at the amateur level (his father still trains him), with a
107-13 record, winning a National Golden Gloves title and topping out as an
Olympic alternate. Growing up in the tough Philly gym system serves Garcia just
as well - if not better - in the pros as his time with the national amateur
team. Is proud and ready to represent Philadelphia, “I’ll make my mark as the
next champion out of Philadelphia, making my own lane and making my own
history.” Garcia has quick hands and educated feet keep him in continual
contact with the target. I would not qualify Garcia as a strong puncher (with a
63% KO ratio) but his punches land with sudden authority and make a solid
popping sound. Needs to work on keeping the hands up without losing his
momentum or aggressiveness. Displays good head movement with sound reflexes but
can stand a bit too erect when moving forward and is too eager to reply when
tagged. Steadily upped his level of competition which focused Garcia and got
better performances out of him. Soundly defeated former champs Kendall Holt and
Nate Campbell, dropping three rounds at most, on the way up. At 24 years of
age, has the right mix of youth, ring experience and is in his physical prime
for the move to pay-per-view status level, having earned a Ring magazine championship belt along the way. Garcia is confident
he did things right getting to this point, “I’m too smart and I can’t see
myself losing to anyone anytime soon. I’m well prepared and I can’t wait to
showcase my skills. I always go for the knockout; the fans love it. That’s what
I do; I bring knockout power.”
Erik Morales – Until a triumphant ring return in 2010, Morales had enjoyed a well-earned
two-and-a-half year retirement, a withdrawal initiated by a close loss to David
Diaz and preceded by three losses against Manny Pacquiao (twice) and Zahir
Raheem. Making weight and a host of other justifications surfaced to pave the
way for Morales’ return but credit “El Terrible” for real moments of brilliance
in his comeback. Morales earned more praise and plaudits, rightfully, for his
loss to a prime Marcos Maidana than most champions receive for lopsided wins. Fans
loved the prime Morales and he is a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame. I remained
hesitant to fully welcome Morales back for fear of the eventual bad ending that
could be in the cards. That said, at age 36, a rested Morales had great moments
against Maidana, Danny Garcia and young banger Pablo Cano that cannot be
discounted. At his best, Morales was a thinking man’s destroyer, finding and
exploiting opponents’ holes to maximum effectiveness with an intelligent punch
selection. His long arms were like laser-guided missiles and weaved their way
around elbows or gloves to hit the target flush. Those are the traits that made
Morales the last man to truly defeat
Manny Pacquiao. However, it was Morales who exited that trilogy the more
damaged party. Morales lost four subsequent fights, twice stopped by Pacquiao
in revenge matches. Morales is looking less paunchy than in his previous comeback
bouts and to ensure his safety, he underwent a cranial CAT scan in his last
fight. Morales has not won a fight above 130 pounds against a top 10-level
opponent and this bout will be contested at the junior welterweight limit.
Morales fans can take consolation that he is coming back for the right reasons
of pride and love for the sport, not forced to return to the ring by monetary
problems as so many others have needed to do. I pay attention when a veteran
like Morales speaks and his matter-of-fact statements are born of experience.
“We’re totally prepared. We are ready and anticipating stepping in the ring.
We’re very hurt over what happened in March and we have done everything
possible to be ready for this Saturday. My body responded well to my training
regimen and I feel that this time the outcome will be different.” Morales is
one of the most understated legends of his era, whose intelligent punch
selection speaks volumes so he does not have to.
Verdict – Including their last fight, Garcia has gained experience and become better
while Morales has simply aged. This fight is about time; simply put, Morales is
out of time and it is Garcia’s time to shine. There is a tipping point for
every match-up where the importance of youth and speed outweighs experience and
guts. Garcia is on the right end of that seesaw equation. The level of
progression is right for Garcia; outdueling long-armed Kendall Holt and
out-gutting Amir Khan in a rough-and-tumble brawl readies Garcia for the
physical Morales again. Ten years younger and faster of hand and foot, the one
thing Garcia has to be weary of is getting dragged into a brawl again, which he
will have learned from his last two fights. Garcia needs a good early start
because Morales is like a locomotive that is hard to stop once he has worked
his way up to and found momentum. The late rounds could be the difference again
with Morales coming on strong but not having the lively legs to track down and
force his younger foe to engage. Garcia is still the naturally larger man and
thus built to absorb Morales’ fierce punches. In the final analysis, Garcia’s
speed and reflexes allow him to escape the intelligent traps of the old man for
a 116-112 type victory on the cards.
Prediction record for 2012:
84% (104-20)
Prediction
record in 2011: 88% (138-19)
Prediction
record in 2010: 85% (218-40)