Tonight’s Showtime showdown between
Anselmo Moreno and Abner Mares is one of the 10 best match-ups that can be made
in boxing. An intriguing clash of divergent styles but equal skill sets and both
men are quality champions who could have chosen to avoid each other at separate
weights. Instead they are fighting each other for a potential place in the mythical
pound-for-pound rankings. More attention and credit should be given to Golden
Boy Promotions’ partnership with Showtime of late that has delivered quality
and quantity for a third consecutive month. Tonight’s triple-event follows on
the heels of two quadruple headers, proof that Oscar De la Hoya is making good
on statements earlier this week. “We don't just want to put on a main event; we
want to stack our cards from top to bottom. That's what boxing should be
and that's what boxing is all about. We have great prospects and world
champions fighting together on one night.” The opener of the evening, featuring
Alfredo Angulo, seems designed to reintroduce Angulo to the public after a
lengthy layoff due to now-resolved immigration problems. All in all, this is a
high-quality card surpassing the fare HBO offers simultaneously tonight.
At
the Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
(Showtime) Abner Mares (24-0-1) vs. Anselmo
Moreno (33-1-1)
(The Ring magazine #4 junior featherweight
vs. #1 bantamweight)
(WBC
junior featherweight belt)
(Showtime) Leo Santa Cruz (21-0-1) vs. Victor Zaleta (20-2-1)
(The Ring magazine #5 bantamweight vs. unranked)
(IBF
bantamweight belt)
(Showtime) Alfredo Angulo (20-2) vs. Raul Casarez (19-2)
On
shows featuring more than two fights, I now only do full write-ups on the two
main events, for the sake of brevity and will only do a prediction for the
opening bout.
Alfredo
Angulo vs. Raul Casarez - A good
stylistic matchup for fans since one boxer always comes forward because it is
stamped in his DNA while the other has no choice because he lacks offensive
variety and speed. The man with all the options is Angulo, who, based on
amateur pedigree and gym talk, can change to a “Plan B” but refused to do so in
his two losses. Casarez does not have the athletic gifts or boxing pedigree to
even make Angulo think about a second option. I look for Angulo to have his way
from the outside working inward with an accurate and speedy jab but will need
to shake off some ring rust in the first three rounds. Angulo has the
resourcefulness and brute force to walk Casarez down and I expect him to do so
and be in total control by the fifth stanza en route to a comfortable decision
victory. Casarez is game and will try to punch back in the opening rounds but
will be put into a shell of self preservation by Angulo’s superior ring I.Q. as
his frustration and disappointment builds.
Victor
Zaleta –
This Mexican fighter came up the hard way, defeating 35-fight veteran and
former champion Eric Ortiz via shocking sixth round stoppage in only his third
professional fight! Three fights later, Zaleta went 10 tough rounds against
former champion Jose Antonio Aguirre, dominating a second former champion
before his 10th fight. Those results set very high expectations that
have not completely materialized for some reason? Now a seven-year pro with
plenty of experience under his belt, Zaleta remains willing to take on the
best. Given early success and solid fundamentals, I assume Zaleta had a good
amateur background but I was not able to find information about him in the
unpaid ranks. Has a tendency to fight up or down the level of his opposition
and at 5’6½” with a 68½-inch reach, Zaleta has good physical tools to exploit
his experience. In Zaleta’s first fight after beating Aguirre, he was beaten by
capable Faustino Cupul who outworked Zaleta over 10 rounds, pushing him
backward. Likes to come forward and box with his hands held high, batting down
the opponents’ jab or deflecting them (think Ricardo Lopez but not as fluid)
but lacks great hand speed to retaliate from that position immediately. That
posture actually hurts him a bit on defense with short or straight accurate
punches splitting that guard, most noticeably by an elite Omar Narvaez. Only
bested decisively once by just mentioned Omar Narvaez in Argentina and on short
notice, so no shame there. Lost a point in the sixth round for repeated low
blows in that mauling contest. It is Zaleta's only loss in his last 16 bouts.
Four fights later, Zaleta faced hot and cold Juan Montes (who came in over the
weight and Zaleta lost a point for a low blow) who started strong before Zaleta
reversed the momentum late coming on strong in the championship rounds to earn
a draw. Sometimes lacks imagination on offense but when Zaleta is on his game,
can control foes with volume and ability to keep them close and rake their
bodies with shots to slow them down to his speed. It allows Zaleta to take over
in the later stages of fights when his stamina and upper body strength come to
the forefront. At age 25, Zaleta is motivated to win, “I'm used to nobody
believing in me and I like to shut people's mouths.”
Leo
Santa Cruz – Perhaps
the best young body puncher in all boxing, Santa Cruz is maturing into an
all-around boxer at a frightening speed after winning his world title. All that
talent is rooted in amateur basics, Santa Cruz estimates an unpaid record of
62-8, doing well in the tough Southern California circuit, advancing to one
national tourney finals. Learned much more in the region’s loaded gym network
where Santa Cruz sparred champions Giovani Segura and Abner Mares while
observing the work ethic it takes to become a champion. Santa Cruz grew up in
the sport with his father still training him along with Roberto Garcia, who is
brought in for fine-tuning and fight strategy in the final weeks. Began boxing
at age eight, idolizing Julio Cesar Chavez, where Cruz no doubt learned the
left hook to the body that stopped four quality opponents in 2011. Last time
out, Santa Cruz scored his most impressive victory, knocking out an Eric Morel,
who went the distance with Abner Mares. Meticulous technique aided Santa Cruz
in beating tough Vusi Malinga, patiently riding out Malinga’s early aggression
with counters before taking the lead and punishing the South African down the
stretch. Is better than expected at infighting, given his 5’7” height and long
arms, showing poise, waiting for openings for his slicing uppercut and short
hooks. Otherwise, loves to work behind the one-two, stepping into a stiff jab
that forces foes to the back foot. Everything works toward setting up an
inevitable punch under the elbow and to the liver. Like many youngsters, Santa
Cruz is lazy on defense, not moving his head but neatly tucking his chin as he
wades in. As a result, was dropped hard in his 10th pro bout, a
right hook to the ear affecting his equilibrium, but Santa Cruz showed
character, boxing his way out of trouble. Even in championship fights, has
switched from banger to boxer and vice versa, according to an opponent’s
weakness, and does it with a fluidity and comfort beyond his 102 rounds of
professional experience. Knocking out 10 of his last 11 opponents is a result
of Santa Cruz maturing physically and entering his physical prime at 24.
Paralyzing body shots are what catch the eye first with Santa Cruz. Tough
mindset along with a willingness to adjust his wide offensive arsenal to
exploit an opponent’s weaknesses speaks volumes about the melding of Cruz’s
mind and body to form a complete champion.
Verdict – A year ago, Zaleta
had enough grit and upper body strength to maybe pull off an upset but Santa
Cruz has really matured since winning the title and as the boxing axiom goes,
improved by 30% just winning a world title belt. If Zaleta is too physically
strong for Cruz, he will step and pivot around a slower Zaleta to create
opening for his straight right hand or hook to the liver. The straight lines and
punches of Cruz win the day and if the fight goes the distance, will be
rewarded by the judges in unanimous fashion. Those punches are doubly
troublesome since Zaleta likes to come at foes in straight lines and does not
have a lot of mobility from side to side to create angles. Cruz’s accuracy
against Morel was scary and Zaleta is not as defensively conscious as Morel so
this one could become very lopsided. I think Zaleta is tough enough to last the
distance but his face and body will bear the scars of a grueling fight.
Anselmo
Moreno – I
appreciate road warriors who win their titles in another man’s home country and
Moreno falls into that select group, as well as many other positive categories
that remind of legends like Nicolino Locche or an Eder Jofre. Moreno continues
to defend his title on the road against top opposition and raised eyebrows with
his dominating performance against always dangerous Vic Darchinyan in his
American debut. The 5’6½” Panamanian is a lanky southpaw stylist with long
spidery arms, boxing in the mold of an Ivan Calderon or Pernell Whitaker. One
distinction between Moreno and a Calderon type is that Moreno is not afraid to
engage inside, using his natural strength and sharp shoulders to push or maul
if opponents get close. Described himself thusly, “My style fascinates me when
they are right in front of me and I can make them miss. They miss and I counter
them. That’s the art of boxing. Hit and not be hit.” Though not a hard puncher
(34% kayo ratio), Moreno’s punches speed and left-handed trajectories lend them
sting. Uses a searching jab to gauge range (rear guard stays by chin in classic
stance) and varies blows from arrow-straight lefts to looping rights which
unhesitatingly follow-up advantages to the head and body. Straight left is most
potent weapon which Moreno trails in with a forward stride, setting up other
opportunities. In general, despite counterpunching ability, Moreno presses the
action. Has not lost since a disputed four-round split decision (twice avenged)
at age 17, in his first year as a pro, and made 10 title defenses over four
years. Won’t have a problem with pro-Mexican crowd, having defended title in
France, Germany, America and Venezuela. Handed Russian Volodymyr Sydorenko his
first loss on the road and did the same to Nehomar Cermeno, traveling to
Cermeno’s hometown. Has a knack for doing just enough to win, registering four
title defenses by split decision (three on the road). Did seem to tire late in
some bouts, maybe the result of Moreno’s legs betraying him after difficulties
making weight. Only fought twice a year in last two years but past managerial
problems were the cause of inactivity (but is a gym rat who never lets himself
down in preparations). Described his state of mind for Mares and why he thinks
victory is eminent, “I'm very, very confident in my conditioning, that I'm
going to be able to overcome anything. I'm very anxious and hungry for this
fight and that's what's going to lift me to victory.”
Abner
Mares - I
imagine Mares learned how to fight at family dinners, where he had to fend off
10 brothers to get his share of food. Mares grew up in a boxing family; his
father was a pugilist, so “Lil’ Abner” absorbed boxing via osmosis before
stepping in the ring at age seven. It’s somewhat of a rarity among elite
Mexican fighters given he was an accomplished amateur finishing with a 112-8
record. Mares brought home international medals and ended his run in the
amateurs with a disputed loss in the Olympics. Was number one on Golden Boy Promotions’
draft board, inking Mares after the Olympics, and became the first fighter to
debut with the company to win a world title. A smooth
boxer-first/puncher-second-type with solid pop in both hands, Mares sports
sophisticated feet that put him in a position to unleash with either hand. Uses
his intellect to deliver well-timed flurries and in fights against elite-level
opponents, unafraid to stay in the pocket during offensive and defensive
sequences. Impressively reversed momentum in marquee bouts against Vic
Darchinyan and Joseph Agbeko, fighting through adversity despite sustaining an
early knockdown, cuts and point deductions. This is borne of Mares’ great
attitude, “I want to be remembered not as a fighter that was unbeaten but as a
fighter who fought the best.” Overcame another scare when a detached retina
nearly ended his career and refused to reel in his aggressive style in the face
of that injury. Mares has a pleasing style and personality, endorsing products
in Mexico and is a potential star on both sides of the border - even though his
image took a hit in the first Agbeko bout when Mares could have easily been
disqualified for low blows. Trained by Hall of Fame trainer Ignacio Beristain -
who molded similarly-stylish Juan Manuel Marquez - early in his career while
respected Clemente Medina presided over recent wins. Distance fights against
Vic Darchinyan, Yonnhy Perez and Joseph Agbeko, in which Mares got stronger as
rounds progressed, alleviated stamina concerns. Ability to ride out big punches
from elite punchers revealed solid chin but defensive flaws should be addressed
since Mares has the reflexes and technique to avoid punches. Mares is enthused
by this opportunity, “I can't wait to get in the ring. Again, I like to figure
out the opponent once we get in the ring but I think with Anselmo, it's just a
matter of getting him out of his game plan and making it a really uncomfortable
fight for him.”
Verdict – This should be a
very entertaining fight that comes down to the championship rounds even if
Anselmo Moreno has the lead I project. I appreciate the way Mares has challenged
himself in picking elite foes but Moreno looks like a bridge too far given
Mares’ troubles against lesser boxers like Joseph Agbeko and Yonnhy Perez.
Styles make fights and the stylistic match-up favors Moreno, who will use his
deceptive movement to keep Mares off balance and unable to land with power to the
head or body. If frustration sets in, Mares could revert to headhunting and
given Mares’ past (the first Agbeko fight), any blows that land below the belt
will be punished sooner rather than later. Moreno is a precision puncher who
does not waste punches and his multiple connects are easily appreciated by
judges, whereas Mares’ pressure tactics look good to fans but might be deemed
ineffective by the judges if unable to trap Moreno consistently. Mares finishes
fights strong and might be able to rally in the championship rounds to score a
knockdown or two to make the fight interesting on the cards. Mares’ reflexes
and naturally aggressive demeanor could win him some close early rounds as
well. The judges’ preference will play a role in this outcome with fans and
experts split on the real winner. Overall, Moreno’s ring generalship and
countering ability at range wins the day, frustrating Mares with lateral
movement and potshots from inside the pocket that will bring “Oohs” and “Aahs”
from the crowd.
Prediction record for 2012:
84% (111-21)
Prediction
record in 2011: 88% (138-19)
Prediction
record in 2010: 85% (218-40)
