Pity
the boxers who had to skip Thanksgiving dinner in order to make weight and the
inferior fighter a lot more since only one is able to take out his holiday
frustrations. Every participant is surely thankful for the exposure a holiday
edition of HBO’s “World Championship Boxing” provides. Boxing fans were to gorge
themselves on a tripleheader but lightweight contender Sharif Bogere had to
drop off the card because of an Achilles tendon injury. The main event is
garnering the majority of the attention anyhow and deservedly so as it features
two elite boxers in their primes squaring off against each other. A fight that
may come down to ring intellect given Robert Guerrero and Andre Berto’s
athletic gifts could cancel out each other. It is an intriguing fight that few
saw coming but all are anticipating now that it is at hand. Truly, a fight for
boxing fans to be thankful for and gobble up.
At the Citizens Business
Bank Arena, Ontario, CA
(HBO) Robert Guerrero (30-1-1) vs. Andre Berto (28-1)
(The Ring magazine #8 welterweight vs. unranked)
(HBO) Keith Thurman (18-0) vs. Carlos Quintana (29-3)
Carlos Quintana – When this Puerto Rican wild card puts it all together, Quintana is a slick
stylist who frustrates opponents with movement and well-timed counters (most
memorably when he scored a major upset befuddling hot young champion Paul
Williams over 12 rounds). Handed hard-punching Joel Julio his first loss as
well, smartly defusing Julio’s power with lateral movement. As high as those
victories were, Quintana’s lows were equally devastating. In rematch with
Williams, Quintana was knocked out in one round and countryman Miguel Cotto was
too strong, stopping Quintana over five rounds in their island rivalry. Andre
Berto handed Quintana his last loss, a decisive eighth round stoppage over two
years ago. Since then, Quintana has registered two good wins, most recently
knocking out Floyd Mayweather Jr. protégé Deandre Latimore. At 36, this is
Quintana’s biggest chance to alter his career trajectory, either moving forward
as a contender or facing relegation to gatekeeper status. Southpaw was an
above-average amateur with a 62-8 record and has more pop in his mitts than
generally given credit for. Began boxing at age 10 but did not fight in amateur
competitions until age 15, scoring an impressive 48 stoppages in unpaid ranks.
Anticipates punches well and often counters with his left hand before an
opponent’s punch is at its halfway point. Would not classify Quintana as a pure
counterpuncher and he begins to lead, once confidence is bolstered with early
success. Was only ever outclassed in the second Williams fight and had his
moments against Cotto before body shots caught up with the tiring fighter.
Stamina could be an issue for Quintana since he had problems late in fights and
Thurman is a physical foe who will try to push a Quintana who has only fought
once a year for the past three years. This fight is only scheduled for 10
rounds, which Quintana might use to his advantage with a quick start. Staying
active is a key to a boxer/mover like him, though Quintana always looks
comfortable inside the ropes and can fall back on 161 rounds of professional
experience. Quintana wins by frustrating opponents, causing hesitation in
boxers weary of fast counters and movement that leads them off balance. A style
which has untracked many a young or overconfident champion, something Quintana
has achieved numerous times on HBO and is confident he will repeat tonight.
Keith Thurman – Rangy puncher with frightening power has star potential, knocking out his last
seven opponents, and has yet to find a foe to test him as a professional.
Thurman began boxing at age seven, training for power to accentuate his natural
strength, emulating idols Mike Tyson and Roberto Duran though understanding it
hindered his amateur progress. Despite that, had a distinguished amateur
career, packing a PAL and U.S. National title, a silver medal in the 2008
Olympic trial (losing to Demetrius Andrade) and 76 stoppages into 101 wins. Before
passing away, amateur coach Ben Getty described Thurman as a combination
Roberto Duran and Miguel Cotto. Trainer Dan Birmingham (of Winky Wright and
Jeff Lacy fame) now has plenty to work with in a 24-year-old slugger who stands
5’11” with an intimidating reach. Thurman honed his skills sparring champions
Andre Berto, Jeff Lacy, Winky Wright, Chad Dawson and Antonio Tarver and this
is probably how Thurman became a better counterpuncher than given credit for.
Employs a relaxed fluid style despite standing a bit straight and lacking a
consistent jab (using it as a range finder). Thurman’s amateur power traveled
up to the pros, stopping 17 of 18 foes, having only gone eight rounds once. Two
names on Thurman’s résumé are proficient, Orlando Lara and former Cuban amateur
Stalinn Lopez, with 10 others sporting sub-.500 records. A dedicated body
puncher, scoring four stoppages with it and setting up plenty more, Thurman
dips and torques into shots when a foe is on the ropes. Hurts opponents with
either hand but starts and finishes majority of victims with a striking left
hook. Impressive timing lends an awe factor and doubles impact of punches,
leading people to underestimate the manner in which Thurman uses his feet to
set up shots. Did miss all of 2011 with a fractured hand and knuckle injury. If
he develops an intelligent jab to hide or set up his power punches, Thurman can
become a beast in the mold of James Kirkland. Defense needs development,
knocked down in the first round by Quandray Robertson rushing for a kayo,
relying on reflexes rather than head movement. Self-confident without being
brash, Thurman knows the importance of looking good on HBO. Thurman explained
to writer Jake Donovan, “It’s highly important to make a statement. I want them
to know that I belong in that elite class of fighters.”
Verdict – A
match-up that follows traditional hungry young prospect versus aging former
champion storyline and could get interesting if Thurman can’t deal with a cagey
southpaw. I think it can take Thurman a round or three to adjust since Quintana
is also his best opponent by far. Thurman does not have the fastest of hands,
so there will be timing issues which Thurman solves with his feet from the
fourth round onward to hunt down his smaller prey. Judges will appreciate
Thurman’s forward momentum more than Quintana’s accurate counters (mostly off
his back foot) that do not come with enough volume or land with the power to
make an impression on judges to steal rounds. The fight will have exciting
moments and Thurman will learn a lot from it, especially on defense where
Thurman will be punished when lazy, having his head snapped back with the
occasional Quintana hook. Still, Thurman wins six rounds to four with every
round easy to judge on clean punching from both men.
Andre Berto – An
instinctive boxer-puncher groomed as a combat sport champion from an early age,
Berto’s image suffered after testing positive for the steroid Norandrosterone
that he continues to blame on a contaminated substance. Won over 200 bouts in
an amateur career that saw Berto triumph in two National Golden Gloves and PAL
tourneys, collecting a bronze at the World Amateur Championships as well.
Represented Haiti in the Olympics (after a controversial disqualification in
the USA Olympic trials) losing in the opening round to Frenchman Xavier Noel.
At 29, is slipping out of his physical prime and overcoming his first defeat in
a “Fight of the Year”-type bout against Victor Ortiz. Berto had a tough time
with crafty southpaw Luis Collazo too but junior welterweight slugger Juan
Urango never tested Berto’s defense with his lumbering style. Camp Berto says
he was diagnosed with anemia in the aftermath of the Ortiz setback, adjusting
his diet accordingly under dubious guidance of convicted steroid nutritionist
Victor Conte (severed after the positive test). Berto is a quick-fisted
combination puncher who generates a lot of speed despite a wide stance that
looks more limiting than it is. Because of Berto’s extraordinary hand speed and
reflexes, he gets away with minimal upper and lower body movement. When in
rhythm, Berto allows opponents to make a first move, which he invariably greets
with well-selected counters. If there is such a thing as an offensive
counterpuncher, it is Berto; his center of balance allows him to connect
despite widespread legs in combination sequences. That style got him in trouble
with the quick Ortiz and Collazo but Berto showed a lot of heart and stamina
exchanging in the pocket. Muscular upper body gives the impression that Berto
has one-punch stopping power but it is his speed and sharp angles that do the
damage. Accuracy is a big part of that 76% kayo ratio and when combined with
punch selection, it is what makes Berto an exciting force. When opponents try
to take away one part of Berto’s game, his brain compensates to amplify other
parts of his arsenal. Berto’s physical gifts overshadow a pronounced boxing I.Q.,
which should reveal itself more with experience. Berto can probably beat a host
of contenders on muscle memory alone. Over an eight-year pro career, Berto
might have acquired the knowledge to beat anyone at 147 pounds not named Manny
Pacquiao or Floyd Mayweather.
Robert Guerrero - The
last time fans saw Guerrero, he was gutting out a dramatic win over psychotic-punching
Selcuk Aydin after undergoing shoulder surgery and moving up two weight
classes. Before that, Guerrero outthought borderline Hall-of-Famer Joel
Casamayor (unfairly criticized for his measured approach against a dangerous
foe) and dominated Vicente Escobedo in distance wins. Laidback Californian is a
three-division champion (sorry, I don’t count interim belts) who has
overachieved considering the mental strain he and his wife, Casey, (who
courageously overcame leukemia) have endured. Thankfully, the disease is in
remission and Guerrero can now fully devote himself mentally to boxing. In the
past, I unfairly underrated Guerrero. I chose to remember his loss to Gamaliel
Diaz more than impressive stoppage victories over the likes of Jason Litzau,
Spend Abazi and Efren Hinojosa. Why? I am not sure; it just always stuck in my
mind like a bad song. Fairly, Guerrero has made me regret my faulty evaluations
with a string of impressive victories. Guerrero is a snappy-punching southpaw,
his diverse abilities allowing him to box patiently before switching into
seek-and-destroy mode if a foe is hurt. A former featherweight and junior
lightweight titlist, he was huge for those weight classes but it does not look
like his power traveled with him to welterweight (even though Guerrero’s power
is predicated on speed as much as pure punching with his accuracy adding to the
impact). Guerrero turns over his punches well from a distance and finds space
by taking judicious backward steps when needed. However, in other instances,
unleashed sharp uppercuts inside. On defense, Guerrero seems a bit stiff, not
rolling with punches and standing too tall during exchanges. When on defense,
crowds opponents enough to absorb the impact of punches instead of taking full
brunt at range. At 29, Guerrero is exiting his physical prime and looks best
when moving forward behind a forceful jab and accurate hooks. At lower weights,
was the complete package, eliminating minor flaws while adding new tools to his
offensive arsenal despite never replacing his father as trainer. Because of the
odd circumstance of his no-contest against Daud Yordan, cut and concussed by a
hard headbutt, Guerrero was unjustly downgraded in terms of toughness. Now that
his wife’s medical issues are behind them, a more focused and dedicated
Guerrero can go on to fulfill the star potential many see in him. Maybe that
Floyd Mayweather bout Guerrero has been hyping is not that implausible after
all…
Verdict
– I have always underestimated and picked against Guerrero but have come around
to admire his ring acumen and pure willpower. I always admired the way Berto is
able to get close to foes despite an unnaturally wide stance but this will work
against Berto in this fight, frustrating his attempts to come forward with
speed and accuracy. I can’t see Berto staying connected to Guerrero enough to
get him in trouble or stopping Guerrero from coming straight up the middle as
Berto tries to adjust his guard. I have wavered and changed my mind on the
outcome of this fight since plausible scenarios exist for either man emerging
with a victory. If the referee separates the boxers quickly or warns Berto for
roughhousing, it is advantage Guerrero as well. Look for Guerrero to time Berto
early while he shakes off 14 months of ring rust, never allowing Berto to get
comfortable or in a rhythm. Guerrero withstood the physically strong Selcuk
Aydin and I believe he can do the same with Berto’s shots that sting more but
are not as thudding. I remain hesitant in picking Guerrero but have learned my
lesson and back the Californian to win a unanimous decision somewhere around a
116-112 or 115-113 margin.
Prediction record for 2012:
84% (118-23)
Prediction
record in 2011: 88% (138-19)
Prediction
record in 2010: 85% (218-40)
