Yes,
we have seen this main event before but who among us does not like watching a true
classic over and over again? Will it be fourth time-lucky for Juan Manuel
Marquez? For boxing fans, it should be since the previous three meetings
between Marquez and Manny Pacquiao have been dramatic as well as rating highly
historically where trilogies are concerned. However, the mind has a difficult
time conjuring up a quality fourth episode of an entertainment franchise.
Perhaps “Star Wars IV” (“The Phantom Menace,” right?) [Nerd/Editor’s note: Though it’s the fourth film in the “Star Wars”
franchise to be made, “The Phantom Menace” is actually “Episode One.” “Episode
Four” is “The Empire Strikes Back”…my favorite in the original trilogy…but
enough about me…], seems like an apt comparison since many people think
Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez are so advanced they think “Star Wars”
is a documentary.
Because of the quadruple-header format
of a pay-per-view, I will only give full coverage (with individual fighter bios)
on the two main events since including them for all eight boxers would make
this a book-length feature instead of an article. Instead, I will give synopses
on how I think the two preliminary bouts will unfold and pick a winner. I was
asked about other bouts this weekend as well, so I will make picks for other
televised main events and fights from around the world in this active weekend
for boxing.
At Temple’s McGonigle Hall,
Philadelphia, PA
(NBC Sports) Bryant Jennings (15-0) vs. Bowie
Tupou (22-2)
Bryant Jennings might be America’s best
hope at heavyweight (too bad he is not America’s most exciting as well!) taking
a small step toward readying himself for the elite Europeans by facing this
tough Pacific Islander first. Bowie Tupou’s once buoyant boat is sinking fast
after suffering an eighth round TKO to fellow prospect Malik Scott three months
ago. I don’t see Tupou getting knocked out this time but he will lose thanks to
an inability to move laterally or maintain proper distance against an intelligent
boxer Jennings. The Philadelphia boxer will stay on the outside and pick Tupou
apart with superior hand speed and even when Tupou gets inside, Jennings has
underrated natural strength and a good chin that will stave off Tupou’s
charges. Jennings is also an underrated body puncher, so Tupou has very little
working for him, stylistically, against Jennings. Another good but
unspectacular win for Jennings by 10 rounds in a 12-round fight.
At the Business Expo Center, Anaheim, CA
(FOX Espanol) Luis Ramos (23-0) vs. Ricardo
Williams (20-3)
Ramos is hoping to become everything
Williams was hyped to be coming out of the Olympics in 2000, a fast stylist
with enough sting in his punches to keep brawlers honest. Williams is still
only 31 and continues to present moments of danger in every fight but lacks the
consistency and work rate to upset concentrated foes of high level abilities.
Ramos has those abilities and the focus as well and will pivot and potshot
Williams throughout the fight with accurate leads and counters. Everything
Williams does well Ramos does at a higher and younger pace, allowing Ramos to
win a clear-cut decision along the lines of 98-92.
At
the MCH Messecenter, Herning, Denmark
Mikkel Kessler (45-2) vs. Brian Magee (36-4-1)
(The Ring magazine #8 light heavyweight
vs. unranked)
The
exciting Kessler is trying to fight his way to another big payday but injuries
have prevented him from fighting more than once a year since 2009 (this is
Kessler’s second fight this year), limiting those big fight opportunities.
Magee is similarly exciting but has always lost against top-level guys, which
Kessler certainly is. I do not think that trend changes with Kessler too strong
and attack minded at 175 pounds for the naturally smaller Magee. The first backward
step Magee takes will begin his downfall, since he lacks the speed or ability
to box while backing up. Kessler’s accuracy aids him in stopping Magee between
the sixth and eighth round, either by straight kayo or swelling and cuts.
At
the Bonus Arena, Hull, England
(Wealth
TV) James DeGale (13-1) vs. Fulgencio Zuniga (25-6-1)
Another match where the difference in
speed alone makes predicting a result easier than most main events - and the
speed advantage (of foot and hand) favors DeGale in a big way. In order for
Zuniga to use his advantage in power, he needs to get close and stay there,
which DeGale will not allow with his feet making Zuniga pay on the way in with
his accuracy. Zuniga never quits looking for the knockout punch but he does
grow frustrated and throws less and less as the rounds progress. Zuniga has the
chin to last the distance and DeGale is smart enough to not take chances,
scoring a sound but unspectacular decision, probably sweeping every round
(unless he gets lazy late, which has been a tendency) behind his jab and
evasive reflexes.
At the Orient Theatre, East London,
South Africa
Nkosinathi
Joyi (22-1) vs. Walter
Rojas (19-2-1)
(The
Ring magazine #7 strawweight vs. unranked)
I still can’t believe Joyi lost to
unheralded Mario Rodriguez and expect him to bounce back like a champion. They
picked an easy touch in Rojas, an Argentine who has 12 foes on his résumé with
no recorded bouts before facing him. Rojas lost to a 15-11 boxer as well. Not
much thought or video footage viewing is needed for this matchup, Joyi by
knockout before the third round.
Ali
Funeka (31-3-3) vs. Zolani Marali (21-5)
I like Funeka the second time around
again but it is hard to judge South African boxers since the elite ones are
just not active enough to maintain consistency. Funeka is a full notch better
in every aspect and I was surprised he struggled last time out getting tagged
by looping counters from Marali. Given that he knows what is in front of him
now, I like Funeka to win more comfortably and maybe get a late stoppage since
he is properly motivated.
At the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV
(PPV) Manny Pacquiao (54-4-2) vs. Juan
Manuel Marquez (54-6-1)
(The Ring magazine #1 welterweight vs. #4
junior welterweight)
(PPV) Miguel Vazquez (32-3) vs. Mercito Gesta (26-0-1)
(The Ring magazine #2 lightweight vs. unranked)
(IBF
lightweight belt)
(PPV) Yuriorkis Gamboa (21-0) vs. Michael Farenas (34-3-4)
(PPV) Javier Fortuna (20-0) vs. Patrick Hyland (27-0)
(The Ring magazine #8 featherweight vs. unranked)
Javier
Fortuna vs. Patrick Hyland – Javier Fortuna looks like a
star of the not-so-distant future and his last two victories were worthy of
2012 “Knockout of the Year” consideration. Despite looking like he is out of
control and off-balance, Fortuna remains accurate and balanced while winging
hooks that make Ricardo Mayorga’s look compact. Hyland is the opposite, a “by-the-book/master
the basics without taking chances” boxer who wins by staying consistent and in
control. The swiftness and velocity of Fortuna’s punches will blow Hyland out
the water, probably early and surely before the seventh round. A solid jab will
help Hyland survive the early assault of Fortuna but the speed disparity is
simply too wide and allows the Dominican destroyer to exploit every mistake of
a losing but steadfast foe. Either referee Duane Ford saves Hyland from himself
or he goes out a bloody mess around the sixth round.
Yuriorkis
Gamboa vs. Michael Farenas - The criminally inactive
Gamboa returns (ironically on a Top Rank card which new promoter 50 Cent bought
Gamboa away from) against a streaking southpaw opponent after enduring 15
months of inactivity. If anyone has the athletic ability to make a long layoff
meaningless, it is Gamboa. The Cuban expatriate is at his best when throwing
combination volleys, which might take a while to return because of ring rust
and Farenas’ own awkward lunges. Farenas has a quality left hook and moves well
defensively above the waist but the Filipino sometimes has trouble combining
the two, going all offense or defense instead of fusing them smoothly while
darting in and out of range. It is consequential to Gamboa that this is a 12-round
fight, allowing him to build momentum from the fourth round on and rack up
points, perhaps scoring a knockdown or two in the late rounds. Those points
will ensure a more comfortable win on the scorecards that is not reflective of
the actual toughness of the fight. By bout’s end, Gamboa should be up four
points on the judges’ tallies.
Mercito
Gesta - One great athlete can inspire an entire generation, as
fans paying attention to the quality and depth of Filipino boxers emerging
since Manny Pacquiao’s rise will attest. Gesta is another in that talent-rich
vein, motivated by Pacquiao’s achievements and emulating his hero’s style. Combination-punching
25-year-old moved to America five years ago, becoming a constant on the gym
circuit, sparring champions like Shane Mosley, Amir Khan, Antonio DeMarco and
Jorge Linares. This power package is guided by trainer/manager Vincent Parra,
polishing up a diamond-in-the-rough who turned pro at age 16. Hall of Fame
promoter Don Chargin commented on Gesta early in his career, “Mercito’s a
southpaw and he’s a vicious body puncher. He’s really starting to find his
punching power and he’s fun to watch.” Though “No Mercy” Gesta has only stopped
14 opponents, sporting a 52% kayo ratio, recent TV outings suggests
considerable power based on speed that stuns on arrival. When he gets an
opponent in trouble, Gesta goes all-out for the stoppage, needing to rein in
exuberance for selective punching. A maturing Gesta is refining that power; it
is shocking that he never fought an amateur bout (aside from Muay Thai and
kickboxing), stopping seven of his last nine foes and upping the level of
opposition. At 5’7” with a 68-inch reach, Gesta’s size is a potential drawback
against bigger lightweights, so his jab and timing must improve. Naturally
right-handed, Gesta throws many combinations and their speed is accentuated by
accuracy and straight path the punches travel. Described his ring approach to
writer Ryan Maquiñana, “I try to observe my opponent and see the best way to
beat them. I don’t like fighting just one style because the opponent will be
able to study me.” Needs work on defense, where Gesta can use that small
stature to his advantage by dipping more when moving away or into an opponent.
Reflexively brings his hands up fast and high, sometimes leaving ribs exposed
and negating countering opportunities. Overcame culture shock, which affected
his training and performances; now Gesta speaks English and is a dedicated gym
rat. Soft opposition was a concern until 2012 and Gesta continued to look good
as his foes’ abilities improved. Gym reports and talk around the ring ropes at
big events suggest he is not just the product of easy matchmaking. Gesta is a
legitimate contender who could enjoy more PPV appearances if able to unseat a
champion of Vazquez’s undervalued caliber.
Miguel
Vazquez - Mexican slickster was a smallish welterweight, gaining
my attention as the main sparring partner for Antonio Margarito before becoming
a legitimate champion at lightweight. While far from the most exciting
135-pounder, Vazquez is probably the most difficult to beat and definitely the
most avoided. Some will remember Vazquez as the man who upset red-hot Breidis
Prescott, handing the Colombian his first defeat on ESPN2 and then repeating
the feat with Australian hotshot Leonardo Zappavigna on Showtime. Vazquez is a
tough-as-nails boxer/puncher who never lost to a fighter of lesser ability. Got
off to a rough start succumbing to junior middleweight champion Saul Alvarez by
split decision in his pro debut. Another setback was to pound-for-pound entrant
Timothy Bradley, losing all but one round, unable to deal with Bradley’s hand
speed and strength. Also, dropped a second fight to Saul Alvarez but Vazquez (weighing
a career-high 148¼ for the rematch) is the naturally smaller man and has never
lost a fight at the lightweight limit. Never been stopped either due to a
combination of toughness and underrated mobility that has him at the proper
distance to see punches and avoid or roll with them. The return fire from
Vazquez is timely and usually immediate. Only has a 37% kayo ratio but features
enough power to cut or cause swelling with repeated and precise connects. At
5’10”, Vazquez is extremely rangy for the division and uses that wingspan as
effectively on defense as offense with punches that seem to always unfurl just
enough to connect with a thump. Snappy jab leads the way, in advancing and
countering, altering between using it as a stopper and rangefinder. At 25,
Vazquez is in his prime and trained by Javier Capetillo, the same man who
illegally wrapped Margarito’s hands, a proverbial gym rat never taking more
than a week off between fights. Despite this, has had slow starts on occasion
and needs a couple rounds to time his foe before settling in and upping his
punch count. Vazquez is a very good body puncher, an invaluable asset if the
fight is a grueling as some expect and goes the distance. Our Steve Kim
described Vazquez’s style perfectly in a recent feature, “His style isn’t in
line with the stereotypical, face-first, Mexican style. Vazquez is a slippery,
tricky boxer who is almost impossible to hit cleanly. Punching him flush is
like catching a wet noodle. It’s not a fan-friendly style; it can be best
described as awkwardly effective.”
Verdict
- Vazquez looked ordinary in his last outing, which will ironically aid him in
winning this fight. Yes, Gesta can bang and will advance but he doesn’t have
the accuracy or feet to keep on top of Vazquez to hurt the Mexican
consistently. Vazquez will defuse Gesta’s power, working consistently behind a
long jab and accurate one-two volleys, probably losing three rounds before
warming up and connecting flush late. Rounds six to 12 will look as if the
broadcast is looping the same round over and over, as Vazquez allows Gesta to
come forward while beating him to the punch. The three inches in height and
four-inch reach advantages for Vazquez are added cushions of comfort to aid him
in timing Gesta. Look for a unanimous decision favoring Vazquez in the range of
eight rounds to four as the most probable outcome.
Juan
Manuel Marquez - One of the finest Mexican boxers of his or
any generation, Marquez’s name deserves equal billing with a contemporary like
Marco Antonio Barrera or legend like Julio Cesar Chavez. Nineteen years into
his pro career, the Mexico City native retains pinpoint accuracy that enables
him to end a fight at any moment and still, the future Hall-of-Famer works his butt
off, getting up at 4 a.m. every morning to run in the mountains. Reviewing his
career and ring performances, I cannot think of a skill or aspect of pugilism
Marquez lacks in the ring; “Dinamita” has proven he can do it all and against
elite opposition. You can tell Marquez grew up in as boxing family, absorbing
aptitude by osmosis; his father, a former pro boxer, inspired both sons, Juan
and Rafael, to world title glory. Began boxing at age eight, only losing once
in 36 amateur fights though obviously more suited for the pro ranks given his
patience. Would have been a force on the world stage earlier but endured a
controversial and boring loss to then-unbeaten champion Freddie Norwood on HBO
which alienated the network from him for a considerable time. Gained fame and
admiration for coming back from three first-round knockdowns to battle Manny
Pacquiao on even terms in an unforgettable first meeting. Many thought Marquez
beat Pacquiao in a split decision loss four years later and before that,
Marquez conquered Marco Antonio Barrera to make that fight possible. I could go
on for hours rehashing Marquez’s exploits but suffice it to say, he lacks
nothing in the ring or as a family man outside it. The other factor that
impresses is the quality of opposition Marquez has been able to achieve that
success against, never looking confused or in a hurry to employ a game plan he
has complete faith in. Remains guided by the sage hand of Nacho Beristain, the
Mexican equivalent of Angelo Dundee, who has been with Marquez for over a
decade, an invaluable asset in preparations for marquee bouts such as this. Of
course, at age 39 and after an unadvisable move up in weight to fight Floyd
Mayweather (who came in over the contracted poundage), there were more than a
few skeptics predicting doom before he lost narrowly and controversially to
Pacquiao only a year ago. Marquez is a special boxer adding another paragraph
to an imposing résumé and soon-to-be-finalized Hall of Fame plaque.
Manny
Pacquiao - I have been looking for but not been able to find signs
of hubris in Pacquiao’s boxing, a surefire Hall-of-Famer and legend of his own
time in the Philippines. There is no need to waste much of our educated
readers’ time with a lengthy introduction of Pacquiao. His rise is
well-chronicled in print from The Ring to Time magazine and from “The Jimmy
Kimmel Show” to “60 Minutes” on the television side. It is one of boxing’s most
glorious and unexpected ascendancies, in historical terms, akin to that of a
great general like Alexander the Great given the weight divisions conquered. I
will add that not only is he one of the greatest boxers ever but his virtue
spills over outside the ring where a compassion and eagerness to help others is
obvious in his work as a congressman. Dominating the likes of Oscar De la Hoya,
Erik Morales, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto and Juan Manuel Marquez has rightly
pushed Pacquiao into the mainstream. He is the only boxer who shares the
non-sports press time equally with the NFL, NBA and MLB when he competes. It is
a long way from the teenage boy who lived on the streets of Manila, leaving
home against his mother’s wishes, rescued by amateur boxing (60-4 record)
before turning pro at 16. While his power gets a lot of ink, his eyes and speed
present Pacquiao with the key to unlock opponents. The way “Pac-Man” flirts
with disaster by flashing in at opponents’ defense and offense is breathtaking
in its daring, guile and truculence. A lightning bolt packed into boxing trunks
with punches that strike out in an instant with paralyzing velocity. Unlike
lightning, Pacquiao will strike in the same place twice and go back to a punch
until his opponents reacts to it. Then Pacquiao speeds to the next target area
to bomb, leaving opponents flinching in anticipation of an impact at an unknown
location. A southpaw stance is another weapon in Pacquiao’s arsenal and an
abnormal 67-inch reach for his size (obviously not a product of steroids) is
overlooked as part of his success. An unrelenting work ethic has seen Pacquiao
morph into a two-fisted fighter, no longer dependent on a powerful left hand
alone. Few men have ever entered the fray with a smile and as much joy as
Pacquiao. A strong person of body and mind, the Filipino has mentally accepted
and dealt with an entire nation’s zeitgeist dependent on the outcome of his
fights.
Verdict
– I doubt anyone will be surprised by another close encounter between the Hall of
Fame-bound duo and once again, this bout comes down to effective aggression.
After 36 rounds, these guys are nearly even on the combined rounds tally, so
nothing is apt to throw or confuse the other. Juan Manuel Marquez has been able
to compete with Manny Pacquiao on even terms because his perfect timing
counters Pacquiao’s aggression. However, some judges score the initial attack
instead of a successful counter of it. Given how used and adapted to each other
these two are, I side with the more athletically gifted of the duo (speed, size
and age-wise). That boxer can make needed alterations since in terms of boxing
I.Q., they are on an equal plane. If one boxer is going to press and get out of
his style, it will be a Marquez looking for final vindication. That small
kernel of change could be the straw that provides the tipping balance in favor
of Pacquiao. The Filipino flash will use his feet more this time, not allowing
Marquez to control the distance and circle more instead of the usual darting
attacks. This means the fight comes down to the judges scoring their preferred
style again. I believe one of the jobs of the boxer is to get the judges to
watch him instead of their opponent and that is what Pacquiao does brilliantly
with his unrelenting energy. That means the majority of the time, the judges’
eyes will be on Pacquiao thus giving him the benefit of the doubt in close
rounds earning him a 115-113 victory.
Prediction
record for 2012: 84% (120-23)
Prediction
record in 2011: 88% (138-19)
Prediction
record in 2010: 85% (218-40)
