I have Cotto by late knock out or UD. I just think Pacquiao is still unknown at the higher weights. I feel he hasn't been truly tested at the higher weights. I don't think he has been tested much since his rematch with Marquez. Pacquiao last 3 wins, while they look great on paper, I think those wins are a little overrated. Against David Diaz at 135, Pacquiao fought the weakest of the lightweight title holders at the time and while Diaz had a very good chin, but he has the speed of heavyweight. I don't remember anyone that picked David Diaz to beat Pacquiao.
In Pacquiao's next fight against Oscar De La Hoya, moving up 147, most people including myself figured that even though De La Hoya hadn't fought at 147 in 7 years, the size advantage of Oscar would be too much. De La Hoya ended up weighing 145 lbs for the weigh in, the night of the fight, he looked like a shot fighter with no energy at all. Pacquiao did what he was suppose to do and took advantage of that. He looked spectacular in doing it.
Fast forward 6 months later where Pacquiao moved down to 140, to challenge Ring Magazine Junior Welterweight champion Ricky Hatton. Pacquiao ended up knocking down the champion two times in round 1 and knock him out cold with one punch at the end of round 2. Fight fans were equally impressed with this win. In Hatton's previous fight against slick boxer (and light punching) Paul Malignaggi, he looked like developed a good jab and a good defense under new head trainer Floyd Mayweather Sr. When Hatton fought Pacquio, it seemed like he threw out the defense and did not use the jab . That resulted in disaster for Ricky Hatton.
Against Cotto, this will probably be his toughest test since the Marquez rematch. Cotto is either still in his prime or just a we bit past it, but still is good enough to defeat the top Welterweights. Since Cotto moved up to Welterweight in December of 06, he has really only struggled against huge Welterweights (Margarito and Clottey). The only fighter Cotto has had a hard time with, other than Margarito and Clottey) was against Shane Mosley, who is fast and has power in both hands. Cotto was able to everything Mosley and came away with a close unanimous decision win. Pacquiao has the speed of Mosley (and is a little faster than Mosley), but does he have the power of Mosley? From what Ive read, he does not. One of Pacquiao's previous oppenents Oscar De la Hoya doesn't think so. On his blog, Oscar said "Pacquiao doesn’t hit hard enough to knock anyone out in the welterweight division" and "I could’ve stood there and put my face in front of him and he couldn’t have hurt me".
Lastly, I'm even sure Pacquiao can handle being hit flush by a Welterweight who can punch. I think Cotto will keep Manny at bay with his jab (like Cotto did against Mosley) and slowly break Pacquiao and eventually stop him in the late rounds. Cotto TKO 11.
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