Rahman vs. Toney: The Fatman Cometh
By Julian Kasdin (March 16, 2006)  
Photo © HBO
This Saturday Hasim ‘The Rock’ Rahman, 41-5-1 (33), will defend his WBC strap against James ‘Lights Out’ Toney, 69-4-2 (43), in what promises to be one of the most interesting heavyweight bouts to come around in a long time. Rahman is best known for his knockout win over Lennox Lewis, and subsequently also for his knockout losses to Lennox, Tua, and Maskaev. Toney is known for being one of the brashest three division champs ever, and kind of reminds one of Jack Johnson. He is more like an old school fighter then any currently active fighter, sporting a record with twice as many fights as most active elite heavies. On Saturday Toney will attempt to become a four division title holder, an honor that was almost within his grasp a few months ago before testing positive for nandralone after his fight with then WBA title holder John Ruiz.

Rahman has a lot riding on this fight; basically whatever is left of his reputation depends on winning this contest. At 6’2”, and averaging about 235 pounds, Rahman is the larger and physically stronger fighter. With his 33 knockout wins he is also the harder hitting of the two fighters. Unlike Toney however, Rahman has been known to blow it when it mattered most, he has also been known to come in grossly out of shape. How he fights this fight, and how it goes largely depends on what kind of shape Rahman is in come fight night. In order for Rahman to win this fight he has to create distance, he has a huge six inch reach advantage, and if he comes in at 235 can easily use that to jab at Toney and move away. While it might be boring if Rahman throws 40 or more jabs around and moves out of the way against Toney he could pretty easily win the fight. Toney’s feet are virtually stuck in cement, he doesn’t like to chase his prey around the ring, and that is what Rahman needs to take advantage of. Essentially Rahman needs to fight a fight much like his second bout with Tua, a fight that he got robbed in. Rahman should use a lot of double jabs, and follow up with the straight right or left hook only after he gets Toney to follow him, making it much easier to land flush.

James Toney is a ring technician par excellence; there probably is not another fighter active today, save Bernard Hopkins or Floyd Mayweather, with comparable ring knowledge. Since becoming a heavy Toney has gone 3-0, with wins over Evander Holyfield and Dominick Guinn being the two biggest on his heavyweight resume. Though his fight against Ruiz was ruled a no contest, he did not beat Ruiz using superior strength, but instead by using superior skill, something no amount of steroids can give you. In Guinn, Toney fought someone of similar stature to Rahman, and he made Guinn fight his fight, which inevitable lead to a one sided beat down at the hands of Toney. Toney needs to make Rahman fight an inside fight, where his timing and counter punching ability is the most effective. He needs to dig to Rock’s body so that Rahman cannot move as effectively in the later rounds, and he needs to crack Rock’s suspect chin as the fight goes on. Though Guinn is not the same fighter as Rahman, that is the fight Toney must fight in order to win this battle.

I see this fight starting out with Rahman trying to test Toney’s chin early on, it is important for Rahman to know if Toney can really stand up to a heavyweight punch. Once he realizes that Toney really is a tough SOB, and is very hard to hit, he will then try and create some distance with his long stinging jab. Toney will be Toney during the fight, slipping shots and getting inside to punish Rahman’s body and come back up with shots to the head. As the fight continues Toney should build up a nice lead, and should build on it as Rahman tires. I see Toney winning this fight by either decision, or possibly a late round stoppage depending on how much gas Rahman has left in the tank before the final bell.
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