Taylor vs. Pavlik: Redemption or Revelation
By Julian Kasdin (Sept 28, 2007) Doghouse Boxing (Photo © HBO)  
It was not too long ago that Jermain ‘Bad Intentions’ Taylor, 27-0-1 (17), was the most talked about young American middleweight. With his combination of size, speed, strength, and sheer athleticism, many thought he had a bright future. It did not hurt that he was the poster boy for HBO, who promoted him to the hilt, and before we knew it, he was taking on Bernard Hopkins. Following two controversial wins over the grizzled vet, a controversial draw against Winky Wright, a lackluster win over Kassim Ouma, and a controversial win over Cory Spinks, Jermain Taylor has gone from the future of the division to one of the most
criticized and disliked champions in the sport of boxing.

Where Taylor once stood, now stands another man. A young, hard-charging, big middleweight with a powerful build and a big punch. Meet Kelly ‘The Ghost’ Pavlik, 31-0 (28). Pavlik opened many eyes earlier this year with his systematic destruction of highly-touted Edison Miranda, the man HBO wanted to win, on the Taylor vs. Spinks undercard. That win, plus a highlight reel KO of tough Jose Luis Zertuche, has many people talking about Pavlik in much the same way as they were talking about Taylor before his match with Hopkins.

There are differences though. Hopkins was seen as a complete fighter, a confident, crafty and tough man who was not going to be brushed aside by a young buck. Indeed, most of the press picked Hopkins to win when he fought Taylor, and most of the press and fans believe he beat Taylor in their first and second fights. Very few people view Taylor as confident; virtually no one views him as crafty, and I think there are very few who view him being as tough as the man he replaced at the top of the division. Indeed, there are many who seem to think that Pavlik will jump on top of him and take his heart away early, and that Pavlik’s win is an almost foregone conclusion; the fight is a mere formality.

Taylor can win this fight. Despite what many think, he does have the requisite physical gifts and style to win. The question is does he know and does he have the skill and mental makeup to stick to a strategy for twelve rounds? Taylor has a hard,
fast jab and a piston-like right hand. It is not the hardest punch in the division, but it certainly can keep any man honest. He also has a good set of legs, and while he has too often gone straight back, if Manny can get him to circle, he can possibly prevent Pavlik from catching up to him. While it might seem boring, Jermain’s best bet in this fight is to box, box and box some more. He needs to work that jab overtime, and hammer home the right when he can, all the while circling away from his bigger, harder-hitting foe. If he can do that for twelve rounds, he might win a convincing decision and redeem himself in the eyes of many boxing fans.

Pavlik is an underrated boxer at times. Many seem to think he is a pure brawler, but make no mistake – he employed a very solid strategy against Miranda, and knows his best bet in any fight is to put his opponent’s back against the ropes. We do not know how good he is at cutting off the ring, as none of his opponents have really been that mobile. We do know that he employs subtle head and upper body movement to avoid incoming fire, and that even when he does get hit, he has as solid a beard as anyone in boxing. Pavlik also has a very complete offensive arsenal that includes a thudding jab and off-time right hand that he combines with hooks, uppercuts, and thudding, energy-sapping shots to the body. He lacks Jermain’s speed, but makes up for it with greater physical strength and power. Finally, he seems to have something that Taylor lacks – confidence. He has not fought the champ’s level of competition, but he certainly seems more comfortable and confident in the ring. That confidence, that calm, might be what separates him from Taylor in this fight, as it will allow him to fight looser and not burn up his energy due to nerves.

I think Jermain has been one of the most unfairly criticized champions in the sport; he fought a tough lineup in Hopkins and Wright, and didn’t exactly catch the easiest break against defensive wizard Cory Spinks. That said, I do not think he has grown as a fighter since becoming champion. Instead, I see someone who has regressed, who has lost his fire due to million-dollar paydays, and has lost his confidence due to a lack of comfort in the ring. This is not the case with Pavlik. I think that Pavlik will be able to drive Taylor back, and bang his body to take his legs away. Finally, and here is one thing few people have mentioned, Taylor has shown a propensity to swell. It is here that I think Kelly’s heavy hands will have the greatest effect on the outcome of the fight. Jermain has never fought someone with power like Kelly, and as the taller, younger man begins to bang away at the champ’s face, you will see the area around his eyes swell more and more. Much like Miranda’s face looked distorted by the end of his encounter with the Ghost, expect Taylor to have a similar look. I expect Pavlik to win via TKO late in the fight, largely due to Taylor’s increasing inability to defend himself.






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Julian at: Alcaldemb@aol.com
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