The Breakdown; Oscar De La Hoya vs Floyd Mayweather Jr
By Julian Kasdin (May 5, 2007) Doghouse Boxing (Photo © HBO-PPV)
How much more really has to be said? The upcoming Oscar de la Hoya vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr. fight is the biggest one to hit boxing since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2001. A match that pits the sport’s biggest name against what many consider to be the sport’s biggest talent. Many are split as to just how this fight will play out and who will win. Will it be the faster but smaller Mayweather using his excellent defense and laser like accuracy to pop shot Oscar all night, or will Oscar’s size and power be too much for little Floyd? Then you have other variables, how will the turmoil in camp Mayweather weigh on Floyd?
Will he break his brittle hands early on? What will the change of trainers do to Oscar, who has always had a somewhat confused style, and will Oscar get old overnight? These are all questions that will only be answered on fight night, but further add to the anticipation of millions for the sound of that opening bell.

The challenger in this affair is ‘Pretty Boy’ Floyd Mayweather Jr., 37-0 (24), a man who has won titles from 130 pounds to 147 pounds and is seeking to become a five division champion, star and all time great all in one night. One has to wonder if all this pressure will get to Floyd, who has seemed downright manic in the lead up to the fight. Hopefully for the fans paying over one-thousand dollars a ticket and those paying $54.95 on pay-per-view Floyd will not totally succumb to the moment.

Many boxing pundits are picking Floyd to win. He has been more active than Oscar, he is the faster of the two and the better defensive fighter, plus his entire reputation is built on being undefeated. If his 0 were to go many figure so would his marketability, which is minimal at best. So Floyd has plenty of motivation to win this fight. The question is how does Floyd win this fight? Oscar is unlike any fighter Floyd has faced. Not as fast as a Judah, he is still more skilled and tougher, plus he is faster than Jose Luis Castillo. Unfortunately for everyone not named Mayweather the way for Floyd to win this is by basically stinking out the joint. Picture his fight with Baldomir but with giant caution street signs replacing the blinkers on your car. Floyd has to be ever so careful, avoid Oscar’s jab and vaunted left hook, while picking his shots and moving. For Floyd to win he will basically be reduced to a one or two punch at a time fighter with a very serious Segway replacing his legs.

‘The Golden Boy’ Oscar de la Hoya, 38-4 (30), is a first ballot hall of famer. He has fought virtually every top fighter of the last fifteen years. Chavez, Whittaker, Quartey, Trinidad, Mosley, Hopkins and the list goes on. He has held titles in six different weight divisions from junior lightweight to middleweight, and if he wins on Saturday is almost guaranteed all time great status. This fight will not worry Oscar he has been on this stage before and it could be said he is just going through the motions. Having changed trainers yet again Oscar is now bringing in the man that has made Manny Pacquiao into a beast. Freddie Roach is one of the best trainers in the game, and if anyone can turn Oscar into an offensive animal it is he.

It is already apparent that Oscar is the bigger fighter. Even though both men started at 130 Oscar has grown into a full junior middleweight whereas there are some doubts that Floyd is even a full welterweight. Come fight night that difference in size will be even more apparent as Oscar will probably weigh close to 165 pounds and Floyd will probably weigh no more than 152 pounds.

So how does Oscar win this fight? Simply put he needs to take a page out of Jose Luis Castillo’s book. He needs to cut off the ring, dig to the body and make this a rough and tough fight. He needs to pressure Floyd into the corners and on to the ropes, and find a home for his left hook and right uppercut on Mayweather’s torso. If he can bang away at the body early and work his jab to disrupt Floyd’s rhythm then chances are he will win the fight.

With all the above being said how do I see this fight playing out? I think the key to deciphering this fight is looking at Floyd’s recent performances and his fight with Castillo. While I fully expected Floyd to look slower against Zab Judah, Judah is actually faster than Mayweather, one has to look at his fight against Baldomir. Baldomir is a rugged and determined fighter, but he is very slow and not terribly skilled. That said Floyd looked slower than ever. He was reduced to a one or two shot at a time fighter, and even then Baldomir was able to put hands on him. Rewind a few years to his fights with Castillo and even in his ultra-cautious rematch he still only won by scores of 115-113 twice and 116-112. Oscar is faster than Castillo, and much faster then Baldomir. He is more skilled and stronger than anyone Floyd has ever faced. Couple this with Floyd bulking up to north of 150 and it would seem that Mayweather will only be slower then he was at welterweight. With all this in mind I think Oscar imposes his size and strength early on with Floyd slowing down later allowing the ‘Golden Boy’ to beat the ‘Pretty Boy’ by late round stoppage!


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Julian at: Alcaldemb@aol.com
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